PokerSoup Forums > Strategy > putting your opponent on a hand (and following through!)

putting your opponent on a hand (and following through!)

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1. • Posted by Jason M 2008-05-16 06:24:27
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   • I was playin in this tourney the other day, and a peculiar situation occurred.

     Preflop

     I had in the big blind. Two opponents in middle position limp and the small blind calls. I check.

     Flop

     The flop comes . I figure this most likely missed everybody, and there aren't very many hands that would have a good draw here, so I about 2/3 of the pot. The first player in middle position folds, the next min-raises, the small blind folds, and it's on me. What do you do?

     The opponent who raised me is a pretty conservative fella, and my first reaction to this move is that he has pocket nines, tens, or maybe jacks. I'm pretty sure he'd raise before the flop with aces, kings, queens, and probably jacks. I decide to call, as I figure my outs are two sevens and three aces, which gives me a 12% chance of hitting on the river, and I am being asked to put in something like 1750 into a 7250 pot. Now that I have a calculator on me, it turns out my pot odds were 19%, which means I made a bad call if I was against what I thought I was. Good thing he may have been bluffing or betting with an underpair, I guess :/

     Turn

     The turn is the . I check, my opponent bets half the pot, and I agonize over it and fold. I finally decide he has to have trips and say as much. He tells me he had , which makes me question how I played the hand. The funny part is we were just talking about how sometimes it's good to just call with jacks preflop :p

     Spineless

     Had I stuck with my read, I think I could have had this pot. My opponent said he kinda put me on my hand, and may have called anyway, but I still think I should have gone for it. My guess is the check-raise would be most effective, but who knows. What do you all think?

2. • Posted by Krishna 2008-05-16 17:10:15
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   • Few things:

     1. Using pot odds vs winning odds is good but more often than not not good enough to make good decisions especially in tournaments. You cannot reload so the chips you have left are more valuable. So you need to be getting great odds to call.

     2. Most of your outs are live unless the opponent is on set or on a flopped straight. if straightening card comes on turn you can easily get away because it will not help you.

     3. Your winning odds are 5 outs = 10% on turn and 20% by river. You might face a bet on the turn so even if it is cash game and pot odds are 20% it is wrong to call.

     4. You are right about opponent bluffing or overreping his hand. I tend to overestimate the chance of this and every time I blame no one but myself when I am shown the winning hand.
     You had a good read on him so you should let it go.

     5. You should also also consider opponent has a monster already - flopped set or straight in which case you are drawing thin.

     6. I am not sure if bluffing on the turn would work. It depends if there are rebuys and if opponent 'felt" pot committed. Very often opponents will commit when 1/3 of their chips are already in even though they could fold and play solid poker.

3. • Posted by Jason M 2008-05-16 17:57:22
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   • The stacks were pretty deep at this point, so it seemed to me that using pot odds was seemed good. I only calculated my odds for the turn, as I figured I'd face a bet on the turn. If a seven or an ace comes, he still might pay me off for a small bet, which means I might be getting good enough implied pot odds. Then again, the implied odds could easily counteract the fact that he may have trips already :p

     I guess what it really comes down to if I felt I could bluff him out if a K or Q came, if he'd pay me off if an A or 7 came, and if I was already drawing dead/thin. I like to think I could get him off his hand on the turn if he did indeed have jacks, but it's really impossible to tell at this point. The stacks were deep enough where it seems I should have been able to. Maybe more likely if he had 88 or 99.

     Thanks for the comments. Next time I'll probably just fold :)

4. • Posted by Nick L 2008-05-21 12:41:42
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   • Tough situation because it is unlikely most of the time your oppopient would raise with Jacks not limp. That can be a very tricky way of playing that hand I think the call on the flop is fine and it is ok to fold that on the turn because he could of limped with a stubid hand like .

5. • Posted by Jason M 2008-05-21 16:51:30
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   • Yeah, but I knew my opponent. He wouldn't bet at that flop unless he had some sort of made hand. Probably not even with an underpair. The real question is whether I could have made him believe I had the king :)

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