1. 2008-01-23 01:53:29

   Come Ride the Full Tilt-A-Whirl

   I was 4-tabling cash games last night on Full Tilt for about 45 minutes and the way this hand played out just struck me as something you all might find enjoyable.

   I get KQd in the big blind and somebody in middle position makes a small raise. The button calls and I'm getting 4-to-1 odds here, so I put in. Both the players in the pot with me have about half of my stack.

   Flop

   The flop comes Jh, Ts, 9h - I flopped a straight :D

   I was pretty happy here, but I'm not ecstatic that there are two hearts. I decide I'm not going to let somebody draw to their flush for free and bet half the pot. To my delight I get a call and a minimum raise. Considering I have the stone cold nuts, the only thing I'm worried about is getting more money in the pot. If my opponents had larger stacks, I'd also consider some pot control to make sure I can make them pay for their draw on the turn, but at this point any raise I make pretty much commits them no matter what.

   I re-raise, they both call.

   The shorter stack shows T9, with the ten of hearts. If I dodge two tens and two fours (and a runner-runner flush) I'm good. The larger stack shows AKc - huh? I guess he wanted to pay full price for a 3-outer gut-shot straight draw. Seems good to me.

   I just threw these hands into an odds calculator just for fun and it says I'll lose after the flop one-third of the time against these hands. It seems like today was one of those 33 out of 100 times...

   Turn

   The turn is a small heart. A little scary, but whatever - even if another heart comes, I'll still get some of my money back off of the guy who went in with the AK.

   River

   If you're following along closely, you should know that the river was nothing other than the queen of hearts, of course!

   Shock and Awe

   Wow, I thought I was gold after they showed their hands, but boy was I wrong. Somehow I was able to laugh it off - maybe it's because I'm playing at stakes that my bankroll dwarfs and I can blame it on those odds and their crazy variance.

   One sobering thought, though: according to the odds calculator, something like this should happen 33% of the time. That's more than I would have guessed without thinking about it much. It's funny to think that I probably wouldn't write about this hand the other two times I win it.

   Posted by Jason M at 2008-01-23 01:53:29

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Comments on “Come Ride the Full Tilt-A-Whirl”

1. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-01-27 23:29:32
   • 

   • Obviously you misread the post :) I used two dimes to calculate and rounded to 33%, since that's a number most people can relate to. BTW, there is a chance that at one time the above blog post might have said my opponent with the back-door flush draw had the nine of hearts. Maybe.

2. • Posted by Weezermoo (unverified) g 2008-01-27 23:09:44
   • 

   • Oh and when you want to calculate odds for hands, the best source is http://twodimes.net/poker/, it'll show you his equity was 65.45% with a .89% chance to split had a queen and ace come.

3. • Posted by Weezermoo (unverified) g 2008-01-27 23:06:54
   • 

   • Am I the only one who sees thats the 9 of hearts is claimed to be in two places at once here? ;) ;) I find that to be the most amazing part of the story :)

4. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-01-24 04:36:21
   • 

   • I understood you meant "union" even though you said "intersection". :p

     I definitely would take the straight over two-pair or three-of-a-kind if all three hands are out :)

5. • Posted by K (unverified) g 2008-01-24 00:45:27
   • 

   • More corrections....
     I am so rusty today!

     It is the union of their outs that hurts your equity not the intersection.
     I absentmindedly said intersection but intersection means just their common outs.

     Another situation comes to my mind.
     This came up thrice in my tournaments.
     Two pair vs set vs straight
     One time I had the set and had to call drawing to best hand.
     Other time my straight held up.

     The straight has more equity in this situation because the outs are common to both of them. Only 5 outs for turn (4 outs to full house + 1 for the quads) and 8 for the river (turn can also pair on the river).
     ~ 5x2+ 8x2 = 26% chance of losing.

     Even with 75% equity the straight should push. The set would call thinking of the right odds oblivious to the fact they have a lot of common outs. Two pair might fold but I never saw that happen.

6. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-01-23 23:30:09
   • 

   • Hah. I stay away from my computer for three hours and this is what I get :) I'm sorry I wasn't around to discuss it with ya, but it seems like you wrapped it up nicely.

     I think the most important thing you said was the "intersection of ... combined outs decrease your equity" when playing in multi-way pots. I totally agree.

     I still can't believe they both hit their draws, through!

7. • Posted by K (unverified) g 2008-01-23 22:58:07
   • 

   • Sorry, I take that back.
     I should have done the math before posting.

     Backdoor flush draws dont hurt your equity much (may be 2-3%).
     Full house draw - 4 outs (2 tens and 2 nines).
     Gutshot (3 outs).
     That is 7 outs against you. 7x4 = 28% approx.
     Adding backdoor flush and it is around 30%.
     I am not sure what other possibilities can increase it to 33%.

     May be because the software is more accurate computing equity with exact hands compared to 4 times rule.

     On a side note:
     This is a good example for me. It showed me why slow playing can be bad multiway pots. (intersection of their combined outs decrease your equity).

     Estimating your equity after the flop:
     If one of them had a flush draw/set in his range your estimated equity would be much lower and that is why pushing would be the right move.

8. • Posted by K (unverified) g 2008-01-23 22:40:56
   • 

   • I don't think 33% is possible. May be I am misunderstanding what the number is calculated for.

     Your equity after the flop against those two exact hands should be greater than 80%. Using ranges which include flush draws and OESDs will give you less equity though.
     I have to run it in PokerStove but I would be surprised if it is any lower.

9. • Posted by Ken (unverified) g 2008-01-23 21:35:00
   • 

   • Crazy stuff. I sorta saw where this was heading once you described their 2 hands. I saw that kind of crap happen ALL DAY yesterday on FullTilt. Like I said in my post though, it rarely happened to me. Glad you were able to shrug it off. Running it through the calculator was probably good therapy once you discovered that it happens 33% of the time. I'm shocked that it's that much too. Oh well, "That's Poker"