1. 2008-03-05 06:36:29

   Recent Tourney at Ocean View Card Room in Santa Cruz

   I recently attended a tournament at the Ocean View Card Room in Santa Cruz. I try and do that when I'm visiting Megan. I've only played 3 times before this, and I've placed in the money all three times (1st, 2nd, and 4th for $1080 in profits).

   The tournament is spread-limit Texas Hold'em, but it's pretty much no-limit, as it has only affected how much a person bet once that I've seen. Entry fee is $30, and there's an optional $20 rebuy, which can also be used as an add-on. Pretty much everybody in the tournament uses the rebuy/add-on. There are also alternate spots that usually are used.

   The blinds start at 25/25 and take the usual progression (25/50, 50/75, 75/150, 100/200, 150/300, etc.). Coupled with the rebuys, the fact that everybody starts with 500 gets the game going pretty fast.

   This particular tournament had 36 entrants, 6 alternates, and in the end 41 rebuy/add-ons (!)

   Prizes:

   • 1st = $650
   • 2nd = $450
   • 3rd = $200
   • 4th = $60
   • 5th = $40

   I started out playing pretty conservatively, and manged to lose most of my stack when I stood my ground with . I tripled up once, but ended up needing a rebuy after my lost to . Ugh. I rebought, played for a bit, and then started stealing blinds. I managed to steal some, double up some, and all of a sudden there were only 8 players left. Wow. I played pretty tightly, got sucked out, but then performed a suck-out of my own, and manged to get to 4 players left.

   This is the hand that crippled me. Would you play it differently?

   Dealer: 19k
   Small Blind (500): 15k
   Big Blind (1000): 19k (me) with
   Under the Gun: 5k

   Pre-flop

   1. UTG: fold
   2. B: raise to 3k
   3. SB: fold
   4. BB: call

   Flop:

   1. BB: check
   2. B: check

   Turn:

   1. BB: Bet 8k
   2. B: call

   River:

   1. BB: all in for 8k
   2. B: call all in

   The button had for the win!

   Your Move

   Would you play it this way? I figured if I flopped a set, I'd be gold, especially with that board. Were the odds worth making the pre-flop call? I'm starting to wonder...

   My goal was to flop a set. I assumed I would get away from the hand if I didn't, unless my opponent truly was weak. So I put in 2000 into a 4500 pot - 2.25-to-1 pot odds. That means I need to win about 10k off my opponent after the flop to make my implied pot odds worth it. There's a good chance that my opponent wouldn't give me much action if I did manage to flop a set, so maybe I shouldn't have bothered trying.

   The worst part is the guy who got 3rd only had 4k in chips when this hand went down :/ With that piece of information, any sane person would not chase a set with $140 pretty much guaranteed if they folded.

   Math Time

   I worked out some crazy math afterwards. What are the chances that I would lose set-over-set like this if I happened to flop a set?

   There's about a 13% chance that at least one of my 3 opponents would have a pocket pair in any one time. The chance of flopping a set is about 13%. The chance of my opponent flopping a set is about 13%. That means there's about a 0.2% (1/500) chance of me and my opponent flopping a set. With a pocket pair of fives, that means I'll be on the losing side of that about 1/3rd of the time, which puts my chances at 1/1500.

   Funny. Of course, I might lose to flush over flush or top-pair with a worse kicker. It's still fun to think about it.

   Posted by Jason M at 2008-03-05 06:36:29

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Comments on “Recent Tourney at Ocean View Card Room in Santa Cruz”

1. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-05-23 16:13:54
   • 

   • Because I was in the BB, I was getting correct odds to call and try and hit a set. I think if he hadn't tripped up we'd be talking about it being a pretty good play ;) Maybe not.

     And, yeah, I know about that particular home game! Maybe I should have said I don't know of any games within 5 minutes of me. I was in SC for the weekend, but I never seem to find myself in Fremont! One of these days...

2. • Posted by FREMONTkyle g 2008-05-23 15:07:24
   • 

   • LOL i got a line on a 40 person home game LOL ok given the 1 in 7.5 of flopping a set and with how high the blinds are there is no reason to flat call here looking for the set unless your putting him on high cards and willing to gamble that he has AK AQ and push on the flop if none of those hit risking the pay increase from spot to spot but to call pre flop risking 1/5 your chips is not a good play being the chips are just far to valuabe at this point to risk. sm pairs for sets are only good when it is deeper stacks in relation to the blinds

3. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-03-06 07:11:04
   • 

   • The rake is about 25%, yeah. It does suck, but I haven't seen a home game with 40 contestants in a while :(

     As for folding, I agree, considering the chip stacks that a fold is a good move. What if everybody was evenly stacked at 20k?

4. • Posted by Nick L (unverified) g 2008-03-05 20:21:38
   • 

   • I can't blame ur position and what u did there is a 1/1500 chance of that happening. That means most of the other times u would be 2/1 chip leader heads up. With the other guy going out when the blinds pass by I wouldn't be upset, or talking about that u didn't play the hand correct I most def don't fault ur play here.

5. • Posted by Krishna g 2008-03-05 18:29:40
   • 

   • The structure means you push/fold from level 2. I have no problem with it though.

     But the rake is just too high. 10$ for 40$ buyin (assume everyone takes rebuy/addon) that is 25%.
     Home game anyone?

6. • Posted by K (unverified) g 2008-03-05 18:08:52
   • 

   • Tough situation preflop.
     I would not play with other big stacks just because of the bubble and the shortie.
     Bad situation (bubble) to 3bet if you think button is stealing.
     You are not deep enough to invest money for flopping a set. I think the odds are 1 in 8.5 times.
     You could have laid it down not wanting to play out of position post flop against big stack.

     As played post flop - it is just a cooler.

7. • Posted by Graham g 2008-03-05 07:36:44
   • 

   • That last paragraph under 'Your Move' is the decider. In a tournament setting, your eyes need to be on the payout. Unlike a cash game where every hand is a payout. It brings to mind a situation you told me about from Harrington where folding pocket aces was the play. Tighten up a bit until that short stack is gone, then change the game.

8. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-03-05 07:31:04
   • 

   • The only reason to bet on the flop is to ensure my opponent doesn't get a free card. In this case, I wanted him to get a free card. There was no flush draw, so the only real hand I should be worried about (aside from pocket pairs of course!) is .

     I just assumed when the came and he played with me that he indeed had an ace or two pair :/

9. • Posted by Ethan g 2008-03-05 06:47:22
   • 

   • Man that sucks. I think I might have raised after the flop, but I'd have probably gone all in anyway. As you proved, the chances of or are so minimal.