1. 2008-12-06 07:14:43

   Negreanu: Don't Risk it on a Coin Flip

   I ran across this article and wanted to pass it on and see what others think about it:

   In tournament play, it's generally advisable to avoid risking large sums of chips in coin flip situations, like pocket sixes vs. A-K.

   After all, the pocket pair only is a very slight heads-up favorite. Why risk your tournament life on a near 50/50 proposition?

   (snip)

   In tournament poker, a big chip stack is something that should be protected and not gambled away.

   The full article has a good example explaining the statement. It makes sense to me - the difference between two places can be huge. What do you think?

   Posted by Ethan at 2008-12-06 07:14:43

   View all posts

Comments on “Negreanu: Don't Risk it on a Coin Flip”

1. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-12-10 18:19:07
   • 

   • sounds like good advice :)

2. • Posted by FREMONTkyle g 2008-12-10 09:44:31
   • 

   • lol ok so against a player like SHEILA or ALAN and even CRAIG lol not to put anyones play out in the open. its an automatic fold even in the small donkaments for that exact reason in donkaments small ball is the better strategy you could make that raise 5 times and take the pot down pre flop as the chip leader 3 times which in the long run is a small profit and the one time you do it with something big youll get a donk to push on you if its a really tight player then your trying to play the lottery because the chances are its not a coin flip because with AK and AQ be 2 of the 10 hands a tight player is likly to make that play with its a 20% proposition for a flip and the other 80% your way too far behind so its not a coin flip and with the chip lead there is no reason to play the lottery in this spot because that extra 450K is 2 more raises that have fold equity with the 180K pots you could take its easy to make up the lost money not too mention my raise would be 200K thus saving 10K each time and almost getting myself a 1:1 ration on my money im risking

     AND YES JASON you should make an attepmt at being a pro even if its on a semi pro status. its good you got a day job you like but dont waste all that LUCK lol you have stored or atleast pass that HORSEHOE you got lodged up there to me LOL but seriously keep building that bankroll and one day youll see you have to quite your day job once the economy gets to a better spot and the fish start trickling back into the games

3. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-12-08 21:24:05
   • 

   • Hah, thanks for the confidence boost, Luke, but I can't quite pull the trigger! It's so cozy here :D

4. • Posted by Luke g 2008-12-08 19:26:20
   • 

   • Thats my biggest gripe about online tournys. The stacks are so small and the blinds go up fast you almost have to go in on coin flips just to avoid being blinded out.

     Oh and Jason, you gotta quit your day job to be a real pro!!! Do it i double dare ya :)

5. • Posted by Jason M g 2008-12-08 17:24:10
   • 

   • That's my take, too. Of course, getting your money in 50/50 if you're playing against people who are better than you is not such a bad deal.

6. • Posted by Tony Gags g 2008-12-08 07:26:26
   • 

   • For deeper stack tournies this is so true. For our usual donkaments not so much. I mean the basic idea that I get from comments like this from the pros is that why flip for these huge pots when you can get it in as a much bigger favorite vs weaker competition.