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Monster Draws Early in Tournaments

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1. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-19 18:30:26
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   • A friend recently asked me what I would do in this situation. I made some assumptions to fill in a few details that I would have used to figure out what to do.

     Situation

     I'm playing in a big monthly tournament (280 people) at Bay 101 for $300. Top 10% of players get paid with the standard scale. It's early in the tournament and I'm still getting a feel for how all the players play. I have the second biggest stack at the table: 600. The biggest stack has about 700 in chips. Everybody else has somewhere between 300 and 450. The blinds are at 10/20 and we are playing 9-handed.

     Preflop

     The big stack limps in from middle/early position. Another player limps from late position. I look down at in the small blind and throw in 10 more. The big blind checks. There is 80 in the pot.

     Flop

     The flop is . The small blind checks. I check. The big stack goes all in for 680. Late position folds and it's on me.

     My Questions

     1. Do you call?
     2. What do you put him on?
     3. Should I have raised preflop (and how much)?
     4. Should I have bet out on the flop (and how much)?
     5. What were the most important factors in making your decisions?

     My friend didn't tell me how it went down, but after he does, I'll let you all know. I'll also tell you what I would have done and throw out some numbers to back it up. But first, it's your turn :)

2. • Posted by Graham 2008-08-19 19:13:27
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   • 1. Frown and muck. Too early in the tournament to risk it all on a coin flip. Maybe he's holding maybe . Yeah, I usually try to play to win a tournament, but not that early. Calling there feels like gambling. Not my style.

     2. Hard to put him on anything with the info as it is.

     3. & 4. We missed a bet. I feel like we could have taken the pot at some point. Could have taken it down immediately with a raise pre-flop. That raise (30 seems like the right number) would almost guarantee less players seeing the flop. Then, when that flop comes you can bet out and either take it down or see the turn. Maybe Mr. still goes all in. Well, you can still get away from it. Or he calls and you connect on the turn.

     5. The problem with this course of action is all the betting on the come, which is not really my style. In all honesty, I probably would have gone limp, check, fold. I have no problem with that. Info for the rest of the tournament with minimal commitment. The most important factor for me is wanting to play deeper in the tournament and use skill to accumulate chips rather than luck. I'd like to hear one of our more analytical members hook us up with the numbers, as I know I haven't done. My 'style' doesn't always make the most sense.

3. • Posted by Pokermom 2008-08-19 21:30:13
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   • Call.

     You don't win every tournament and he probably has what I had this morning - an overpair to the board with one of the cards a flushing card. I got called by the nut flush draw. No straight draw even. He hit.

     It's a bad call because you are behind, but it's one of the best drawing hands you could possibly have and it's early in the tourney - about the only time you can gamble. And it's with the only guy that can double you up (yeah, and the only guy that can felt you.)

     Most of the top players I play with would call in a heartbeat. If they don't hit, they move on to the cash game. They build big stacks pretty quickly and then tighten up. And they many times have a draw vs. a made hand when there are 2 cards coming. Sometimes they bet it. Sometimes they call it. But I'm always amazed. Like when I have KT and flop top pair - T. I go all in. I get called by a guy that has 95% of my stack. He has JT, but a flush draw. Turn is another T - he's drawing pretty thin. River... flush hits. He cripples me. He wins a lot of tournaments. More than I do, for sure.

     It's a combination of style and frequency of play. If you play 50 tourneys and cash 10 of them, you are kinda cavalier about the whole thing. Ho hum. I have a monster draw. I call. Yay! I hit! Darn, I missed, moving on.... Get you next time.

     Hard to play against it when you only play once a week or so. Seems like a long time between cashes when you don't play a lot. Makes you not take any risks. The aggressive players that take a lot of logical risks (not gambling, per se, just high risk / high reward logical plays) win. A lot. I've been watching and slowly adding their plays to my playbook...

     Call. I'm sure he did because how would we know the end of the story? (and he probably lost to a full house, after hitting his hand). But, presuming this, I still say, "Call."

     p.s. Since there was no action before his all in, he can't put you on a hand. Just a thought. He's going all in to push off a flush? Or is it a semi-bluff where he has a pair and a flush draw as well? Yeah, maybe he has a set. It's very possible, but why is he so afraid? All that weakness? And he goes all in? I dunno, I don't put him on a set unless he puts you on QT. Even AQ wouldn't necessarily call an all-in - and AQ would most certainly not check the flop. Indeed, that would be one of the hands I would put him on. AQ with a heart. BUT HE CAN'T HAVE THAT HAND! You have the ace! Queen on the board. He's figuring he can take the pot down now, and he has a draw in case he gets called by a better made hand (which is what you would expect people to call with.) I like the check. You bet, he still goes all in most likely. And you may have brought more players into the pot by betting it out. Pricing everyone in that might beat you. For all you know, your ace is good if it hits. Dangerous. Head's up with monster draw. I'll take that risk early on. Even if he hit top set and has 10 outs on the turn. Even then. Only two of your outs make his hand better. And you have more of them.

4. • Posted by Sheila 2008-08-19 21:49:55
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   • I guess I am too wimpy, because I would FOLD. It is too early in the tournament, so I would live to see another two cards. One thing at a time, is my motto--and just play that thing for all it is worth, even if it's only two pair and a jack. (Mark Twain) :-)

5. • Posted by WeezerMoo 2008-08-19 21:51:54
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   • My Questions

     1. Do you call?

     Absolutely I call. It's the perfect chance to double up and set up for a strong run in the tourney, or go out and not have wasted too much time winning nothing. You are never far enough behind, and usually a coin flip.

     2. What do you put him on?

     More often than not, I would put him on top pair decent or top kicker. Almost every player would play it slower and try to get value out of a set or two pair. This kind of shove is almost always a hand like AQ. But...he limped pre instead of raising, which you'd expect him to do with AQ. So, yeah 66 is possible. But I would even wager that a weaker draw that you have totally crushed is possible too and those situations push the decision from a close to even one to one where you want to call 100%. It's a tournament and you need to build a stack. You can't ask for a much better opportunity to do so.

     3. Should I have raised preflop (and how much)?

     I would have raised this 80% of the time at least. Limpers are weak and AJs is a very good hand that, even out of position, you don't mind getting called and seeing flops with.

     4. Should I have bet out on the flop (and how much)?

     I also would lead out on the flop here at least 90% of the time. Had there been a preflop raise by someone else that I had called, then yeah I'd check with the plan to check raise big or all in. But here it's just limpers, so nobody is going to feel the pressure or power to lead out necessarily and I don't want to just see everyone check and drop a blank on the turn. I want to get money in with a hand this super strong. My lead would be with the hope that someone would raise so I could shove.

     5. What were the most important factors in making your decisions?

     I don't know how to answer this question. This all comes from the perspective that my goal is to go far in the tournament, not just edge into the money. And in general, I would assume that the players in that tournament are weak and dumb, which gives two opposing arguments. 1. They are weak so they don't have to even be ahead of you in that spot. or 2. they are weak, so they will give you better, more confident spots to double up later, which gives you an argument for folding. I'd rather just put my tourney on the line with a royal draw because it is never crushed by anything, not even a set.

6. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-19 21:52:17
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   • I love the fact that the first two answers are complete opposites. More disucssion! :)

     Alexis' answer reminds me of something I recently read... Supposedly good players would prefer to gamble against a bigger stack than a smaller stack. They know they have to gamble at some point, so they might as well do it against somebody who can double them up.

     However, it seems small ballers completely disagree. I read Negreanu's new book and based on things I've read from Hellmuth, they are happy to not be all in ever.

7. • Posted by Mr. Segan 2008-08-19 22:28:05
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   • Early in the tournament, I probably fold. I agree with Sheila's reasoning and that works for me. Later in the tournament, I call if I am still second in chips.

8. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-19 22:32:25
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   • Hey Moo & Alexis - when I posted the question, my intent was to convey the fact that I normally wouldn't get a chance to play in a game like this, but I didn't want to outright say it and affect your answer.

     I think if this is an online game or there are other games of equal or greater value available this is an easy call. Even against a set, you win a third of the time. More on how I would have played it when I get home from work :)

9. • Posted by Pokermom 2008-08-20 00:14:50
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   • I totally dig Moo's organized answer and the fact that he addressed, exactly, what was asked.

     Small ball, like slow and steady, works. If you are a GREAT player. Small ball also works if you are the WEAKEST player at the table. I played small ball on Sunday because I was playing against the top players. Not because I was GREAT, but because I was the WEAKEST player at the table.

     For most players, however, meaning GOOD players, leveraging your gamble, gamble early on is a great strategy for building enough chips to WIN. I learned how to grind to 9th place and make a few bucks over my entry fee (that's the WEAK, small ball strategy). I graduated to learning how to WIN. I play the player. If he's better than me and aggressive to boot, I typically won't get involved with anything but a monster because the bastard can outplay me post flop. If he's a weak dumbass, I small ball trap his ass until he hits something and then value bet/raise the crap out of him. If he's good, I let my bets tell my story and trust that he will react accordingly, as I would.

     So, there are no black and white answers. Often times if you play the same, exact strategy a whole tourney, you won't last long. Aggressiveness works, but doesn't last. Those are the build and donkers. They have these monster stacks mid-tourney and are long gone before it's down to 3 tables. They irritate all of us who they knocked out unnecessarily. The biggest compliment we share amongst each other is, "Well you knocked me out, but at least you made the money rather than donking off my chips. Good for you."

     I think I got off subject. Sorry about that. I'm not as organized as Moo. :>

10. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-20 00:35:21
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    • that's why the moo-dawg is one of our three resident pros :p

11. • Posted by uzjedi 2008-08-20 08:39:41
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    • I guess we're assuming we don't know much about these people since it's early. Knowing the player could possibly tip the scales IMO.

      In theory I'm probably right there with Moo on what to do. But I'm not completely convinced it's an absolute. Hellmuth would probably fold and then brag about how Chris Furguson and other pros would have called, but he's going to wait for better spots to outplay people because he's the best Hold 'Em tourney player in the world. Even though I think Phil has some dumb opinions, I still think there is merit to the idea of playing small ball the way he does. I'm not talking about playing like a wuss. Just keeping the pots smaller and relying on your hand reading skills to take you there. It's hard to argue with the man's record. Then again, Chris is a math guy and he has the second best cashing record in the WSOP, and he's got the best record of anyone within the last 10 years.

      I don't think folding is wrong, but calling is probably a better option that early in the tourney for MOST players. Those of us who can't read souls as well as others need to make the math work for us as best as possible. I'd like to say I'm one of the super soul readers, but the truth is I'm not quite there. Not yet anyway. But I'm of the opinion that "perfect" tournament play could find a fold there sometimes. Confused yet? ;)

12. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2008-08-20 15:12:49
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    • Do you call? ok it depends on if im playing online or not. if im playing online then i fold because i can easily register into another tourney that will start in 5-10 minutes no big deal. if im playing live i grdgungly fold because there is no reason to gamble here just yet matter of fact i fold my cards face up if im the last one to act this serves me two purposes it lets people think im a nit and they can run me over plus im able to see who at the table has any tourney knowledge and i can capitalize on my nit image now. too early in tourney to gamble there are better spots to wait for unless you know something about his play and hes one of those guys that trys to bully tables and pick up checked pots.
      What do you put him on? early in tourney id put him on KK AA if he limped in early position and he wants to get called by a QK QJ
      Should I have raised preflop (and how much)? again if i didnt know anything about the player yes i raise pre flop id bet about the pot to weed out the filed
      Should I have bet out on the flop (and how much)? bet on flop yes about 3/5ths
      What were the most important factors in making your decisions? important factors were the fact that its early and i dont want to gamble even if im a statisticale favorite because its still not a made hand and there is plenty of time to catch on

13. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-20 22:59:52
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    • 1. What do you put him on and do you call?

      When I first analyzed this, I immediately needed to work through what I thought my opponent had. My gut said "fold" because even with a royal flush draw, I'm not much better than 50% against most hands and I don't want to go out on a draw. However, keep in mind I don't get a chance to play in tournaments very often, and I especially don't find joy in risking $300 on a coin flip when I think I can find better spots.

      I can see the points people made about calling - it makes sense, if you are going to get it all in on a coin flip eventually anyway (when blinds get big), you'd prefer to do it now. Theoretically, I always prefer to finish last instead of one out of the money.

      But let's do the math. I think my opponent has a weak-ish hand. A weak queen, maybe with a heart. Maybe an open-ended straight draw. Or even middle pair. It seems he doesn't want a call. Maybe he's just looking to protect his top-pair hand or two-pair hand from the draws. And then there's the crazy chance he has a set - some people do silly things when they have a great hand.

      His Hand	Likelihood	My Win %
      set	10%	35%
      two pair	10%	45%
      top pair	30%	53%
      middle pair	10%	59%
      flush draw	20%	90%
      straight draw	20%	82%

      After I aggregate these numbers, it appears I have about a 64% chance of winning (2-to-1 for). Not bad, especially when you are getting better than 1-to-1 pot odds. So, after working this out, I have to agree with the call, even under the logistic circumstances. But if that number was closer to 50%, I'd probably fold. When I did the math in my head, I thought it was more like 50/50.

      3. Should I have raised preflop (and how much)?

      Early in a tournament with out of position against unknown players, I'm pretty okay with a call from the small blind with the intention to fold unless I hit a monster hand - or draw :p

      4. Should I have bet out on the flop (and how much)?

      I would have a hard time not leading out with this flop. A check-raise semi-bluff would be optimal, but nobody showed strength preflop. Note how I have no qualms about check-raising with an unmade hand ;) I wouldn't like to go all in, but if the pot was big enough, I would. Being the agressor is a million times better than check-calling. Fold equity, baby!

      5. What were the most important factors in making your decisions?

      First and foremost, the odds that my hand will be the best at the river. Secondly, how badly I want to gamble (or don't want to gamble) my entire tournament on one hand.

      Thanks to everybody who answered! I gained a new perspective about risking it earlier rather than later.

14. • Posted by Craig 2008-08-21 03:18:48
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    • What did you use to calculate those percentages?

15. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-21 03:44:51
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    • I use http://twodimes.net/poker/. Stephen told me about PokerStove, but I haven't tried it yet.

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