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Monster Draws Early in Tournaments

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1. • Posted by Sheila 2008-08-21 04:23:58
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   • so what happened? how did this end?

2. • Posted by E 2008-08-21 04:44:09
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   • One other factor that Jason did not mention is TIME. You have 600 chips, blinds are 10/20 right now.
     Your M is only 20. How many minutes until next level? How long are the levels? If you have 53 minutes until level change rather than 5 minutes until level change, that should be a factor in your decision.
     If in 5 minutes your M is 10, you cannot just sit there...

     

3. • Posted by Bhakti 2008-08-21 06:07:28
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   • i'd call that in a second online, but in a live tournament, that early, with that little invested? as sexy as the draw is, i'd get out.
     i'd be playing for what, 1200 chips in a tourney where the winner will have something like 100,000? (i don't know exactly how many chips each person started with, i'm guessing from the average at the table.)
     that's just not worth it.

     --bhakti

4. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-21 17:18:50
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   • I totally forgot about E's point and fully agree. However, an M of 20 is still pretty nice, so unless the blinds are doubling next round (and in a casino they probably are), I'd feel pretty comfortable. When I posted the game I was making the assumption that it was a deeper stack long-blinded game.

     Hey Bhakti, what's up?! :)

5. • Posted by E 2008-08-21 18:00:00
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   • I know we read the same books, but some would argue that an M of 20 is not that comfortable. On the next level change, you have pretty much lost your "chip utility."

     

6. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-21 18:04:31
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   • True. If blinds go up to 15/30 you are down to an M of 13, which is where I start to feel a bit uncomfortable. Most tournaments I play in I get to the 10-20 M range quite quickly, so I guess I'm just used to it. At the WSOP my M was 20 after the first round :/

     I don't think I'd make a coin flip call because my M was going down to 13 in 5 minutes. Tough to say.

     BTW, I made those chip counts up, as I don't really know what the exact situation was. Would everybody have folded if I said you had 1200 in chips and the dude went all in for 1300?

7. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-21 23:11:40
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   • Ok, no more suspense. Here's what happened:

     The opponent had with the board .

     The turn and river brought no help for the little old royal flush draw and my friend was out, just like that.

8. • Posted by Bhakti 2008-08-22 00:42:58
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   • i played in a tourney in LA a few weeks back, first hand i had KJ of spades, everyone limped so i did too in late position. flopped a flush, no ace on the board. i made a half-stack sized bet, got one caller. turn was a blank. i pushed all in. i was called, the guy turned over the A of spaces and some useless card. thankfully, a spade did not show up.

     i knew he had the naked ace, and i was taking the chance the 4th one would fall. but i'll take that chance with a made hand. but i wouldn't do what he did, fishing like that with the nut draw, not that early. the royal draw is nice, but it's still a draw. that may be wrong math-wise but psychologically that's what feels right.

     see you guys tomorrow, whoever is going. otherwise another time.

     hey jason. maybe i'll see you friday if i last long enough...

9. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2008-08-22 03:37:39
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   • the problem with the numbers you ran jason is that it doesnt take into affect the type of player your up against. thats why so many of the online players have difficulty when they try to crossover into live play. they dont have the benefit of all the data minds they use online. with the numbers you ran if you dont mind gambling its a great spot to gamble better than most and id take the shot if i wanted to gamble but im more into the idea of small pot poker esspesially in a live tourney. but if i was gunna play a cash game after like ALEXIS pointed out then this is a spot id definatly gamble. plus depending on the tourney youd have to take into account the thinking of the other player what if he has a monster and figures someone will gamble with there 33% to double up early and he pushes all in with AA then your more of a 50/50

10. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-22 04:28:36
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    • My numbers did try to take into account what kind of player I thought he was, with my limited knowledge. Remember, this was early on in the tournament, when I had zero reads. Hypothetically, it's the first hand. All I can do is base my approximations on what I would expect from an opponent who is playing in this game... Of course, I could try to stereotype him based on looks, too :p

      As far as the data - if people study the numbers online enough, they will be able to pull random crap out of their head in the situation. That's why I like looking at the numbers after the fact, and comparing them with what I thought. Initially, I expected a 50/50 or a bit better, but it turns out I was off. I didn't change any assumptions between my estimate and my pure numbers. Next time my intuition will be ever so slightly honed :)

11. • Posted by Floppy 2008-08-23 00:35:40
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    • I'm a bit late in participating, but here goes:

      1. Do you call?

      It's too early to risk your tournament life on a draw or a coin flip. Fold.

      2. What do you put him on?

      I know it's early in the tourney, but what's the chip leader's image? How did the chip leader get all of his chips? How many hands had he played before this one? Did he always limp in previously, then bet huge post-flop?

      If he hit the flop (perhaps top pair, great kicker), he'd bet a portion of the pot or make a pot-size bet. His all-in appears very fishy, like he's on some sort of draw or has a top or mid pair with a crappy-assed kicker. I wouldn't want to gamble with a guy like this so early in a tournament. If it was "chip up or chip out" time, then I'd call, but there's no reason to gamble this early.

      3. Should you have raised preflop?

      This early in the tourney, you should have raised pre-flop to isolate or to take down the pot right there and then. The correct raise amount is $100.

      If this was mid-stage or late-stage of a tourney, limping in to switch it up (and you have a good feel for the table) is a great strategy, but it's early in the tourney and you want to test the table.

      4. Should you have bet out on the flop/how much?

      Yes, everyone limped in preflop. Betting out $60 would put pressure on your opponents. Chip leader might possibly have CALLED your bet instead of pushing all in.

      5. What were the most important factors in making your decisions?

      The stage of the tourney, my chipstack, not having a good read on my opponent yet, my goal to WIN the tourney rather than rail my friends . . .

12. • Posted by uzjedi 2008-08-24 02:23:23
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    • Jason M, said...

      My numbers did try to take into account what kind of player I thought he was, with my limited knowledge. Remember, this was early on in the tournament, when I had zero reads. Hypothetically, it's the first hand. All I can do is base my approximations on what I would expect from an opponent who is playing in this game... Of course, I could try to stereotype him based on looks, too :p

      As far as the data - if people study the numbers online enough, they will be able to pull random crap out of their head in the situation. That's why I like looking at the numbers after the fact, and comparing them with what I thought. Initially, I expected a 50/50 or a bit better, but it turns out I was off. I didn't change any assumptions between my estimate and my pure numbers. Next time my intuition will be ever so slightly honed :)

      Bullseye! Very good explanation of your thought processes. You're right on the money IMO. ;)

      P.S. ...typical donk over-shove in this spot. I see it online in cash games from 50BB or so stacks all the time. What's wrong with people? Oh, well. I shouldn't complain. They pay my bills and then some. :p ;)

13. • Posted by Floppy 2008-08-25 08:29:57
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    • Oops, lol. I had missed Jason's post about this being hypothetically the first hand.

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