hand analysis

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1. • Posted by Craig 2008-08-25 03:04:16
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   • This is the hand I went out on Friday. Tell me what you think.

     Blinds were at 1K/2K, started with 40K. Satoshi in early position raises to 4K with around 100K in his stack. I had . I'm to Satoshi's immediate left and call. Everyone else folds except the BB. There's 13K in the pot.

     Flop comes

     BB and Satoshi check. I push all in for 30.8K.

     BB folds. Satoshi calls with, I think, . I know he had the As and a spade kicker but I can't remember if was actually an 8 or not.

     So his pot odds were: 43.8K/30.8K, or 1.42

     Satoshi's outs were 9 (for nut flush) + 2 aces + 3 8's = 14

     So post flop, his odds were about 14 * 4 = 56% -> 1.27

     When he made the call I thought he didn't have the pot odd in his favor but it looks like he actually did. Anyone care to check my analysis?

     btw, of course the turn and river were both spades, no additional A or J, so I was toast.

2. • Posted by Pokermom 2008-08-25 03:53:03
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   • Satoshi has more one more out than you figure, Craig. King pairs, you split the pot. Not an out to WIN, but an out to NOT LOSE. So I always count them because, you won't call to chop, but if one of your chances is to chop on top of a monster draw, sweet. He also has runner, runner Queens, and runner runner QT as chopping possibilities also, but we don't count those - just pointing them out. Also, the 2 aces are NOT outs. You both have an ace, obviously, so it doesn't help except in the rare runner, runner AJ scenario.

     9 spades + 3 8's + 3 Kings = 15 outs -> 54.12%

     With 2 cards coming, his pot odds are 0.8 to 1 to call
     With 1 card coming, his pot odds are 2.1 to 1 to call

     Since all the money is in before the turn card, you might want to say the implied odds are between 0.8 and 2.1 to 1 because you don't have the opportunity to fold after the turn card. So, yes, he can absolutely call you on the flop.

     If Satoshi put you on a set, then it's a bad call as it kills a lot of his outs. He obviously put you on AK, AQ, AJ or even ATs (but we know you better than that!) and was willing to call even though you probably had 2 pair. You wouldn't bluff with your tournament life, but realize, IT WASN'T SATOSHI'S TOURNAMENT LIFE. You only had 1/3 his stack. Pot odds aside, you don't want to push into the big stack as he very well could have AK, AQ, AT and call you anyway. Since one of the 2 remaining aces was a spade, it was VERY LIKELY Satoshi had the nut flush ace. Pushing with 2 cards coming with all that knowledge is dangerous.

     Bet, he will call. He likely won't raise because he knows he's behind and needs to catch. Turn comes a spade, you get away from your hand and still can play another. Turn comes a blank, you might be able to NOW push him off his hand if you didn't bet out too big on the flop.

     This is exactly when you want to manage the pot size and don't provide people with an opportunity to gamble. If you made a continuation bet of 8K on the flop, Satoshi calls. You don't try to push him away, but try to build the pot if he misses. Next card a spade, you check (or bet small), he bets or raises, you agonize and then fold. You have 14-22K left.

     Or, if the next card is a blank, maybe you push, but 22K into a 29K pot isn't going to do anything but get a caller, damn the odds to hell (think, pot committed...) I'd bet another 8K and likely get another call. He hits on the river, you can still get away from your hand and you are down to 14K BUT STILL ALIVE.

     Betting consistently lets you control the betting and build the pot if he misses. It also preserves your tournament life. With a starting M of 10 - TEN ROUNDS LATE IN A TOURNEY! - why are you pushing anyway? You will ONLY be called by a monster draw and scare away a good customer who hit KJ or something. Also, it's YOU. It's SATOSHI. Jeez, you guys are pretty tight. If you are betting, trust me, Satoshi knows he's behind. He won't come over the top of you with your short stack unless he has you because he know you will call. This is great. You won't be pressured and can have an opportunity to get away from your hand.

     Hind sight is 20/20.

3. • Posted by Dave W 2008-08-25 05:24:49
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   • Wow, what a great hand analysis. I couldn't agree more, why push? To get him off of a spade draw that he is favored to win? The key to this is to ask yourself if Satoshi could afford a race in which he is all ready ahead. We have all been there and made the same decision as Craig, that's what makes these forums great!!

4. • Posted by Floppy 2008-08-25 08:11:49
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   • 1. Satoshi's min raise is very suspicious; you should have re-raised preflop, if you're going to play AJ. AJ is a pushing hand, not a calling hand.

     2. What were you doing playing a trap-hand like AJ from early position anyway?

     3. The likelihood of Satoshi having an ace (assuming it was a full table of 9) is 70% (or 75% if it's a table of 10).

     4. Satoshi should not have called, as the odds against him hitting a better hand than yours (2.13-to-1) was greater than his pot odds (1.42).

     5. I like Alexis' analysis, especially about not needing to push all in. One of the tenets at WPT Boot Camps is to not use more chips than you have to in order to "get the job done."

5. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-25 08:40:07
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   • Note: twodimes says Satoshi is only going to win 34% of the time and it will be a tie 11% of the time. That means Craig is going to win about 55% of the time (and, of course, not lose 11% of the time).

     Why is that so far off? For Satoshi to win, he has to fade the remaining ace, the two jacks. There are 9 spades. That's about a 36% chance to catch his flush. Craig has "3 outs" to hit a full house, which he will do about 12% of the time. That means they'll both hit about 4% of the time, which means Satoshi won't win 4% of his 36% flushies, which leaves Satoshi with 32%. Add a couple for my rounding and the runner-runner outs, I guess.

     That means Satoshi did not make a good "pot odds" call. He had a 1-in-3 chance but had to put 36k to try and win a total pot of 85k (that's 42%). However, as Alexis pointed out, his tournament life wasn't on the line and he almost had good pot odds to call.

     Now, on your play.

     How many players were at the table? Looks like you got 13th place, so maybe only 6 or 7 people. In early position, Satoshi should have a bit wider range of opening hands than you would expect at a full table. My guess is the average stack was about 37k from what I know, so Satoshi is looking pretty good with 100k. So he probably has an even wider range yet.

     Your M is 13, which means you can still play around, but if you get into a pot, you are probably going to commit most of your chips. It seems like a 37k push at a 13k pot is a bit extreme. Although Satoshi could have a lot of different hands, you're usually only going to get called by a better hand. How many worse hands would call? Probably and and I supposed , or the obvious flush draws. Go for more info.

     Bet 10k. I think 8k is too enticing, even though Satoshi isn't getting odds for it. If he calls, the pot is 33k and your remaining 27k on the turn is still good enough to give Satoshi a hard time calling on a draw. In fact, he might fold a lot of draws to the flop bet knowing that you are capable of releasing your hand on the turn, therefore not giving him very good implied odds. Of course, he wouldn't be folding top pair and that draw, though. Not many people would there. Consider this, too: he might hope to check-raise you when he makes his flush, in which case you can see the river for free.

     Hindsight is indeed 20/20 ;) Thanks for the mental exercise!

6. • Posted by Craig 2008-08-26 04:29:10
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   • Thanks for the feedback everyone.

     btw, there was indeed 6 or 7 players and I was middle-ish position. Yuri was the BB fyi. With rare exception, everyone did an add-on/re-buy option so basically everyone started with 40K chips. Six people had gone out already so average stack was about 60K.

     My thinking was I probably have the best hand at the the flop and I didn't want any more cards to come. Pushing my remaining 30.8K chips into a pot of 13K was in effort to buy the pot. I figured if I checked or bet anything less than all-in would result in my 2-pair not holding up. But, as you guys stated, Satoshi could afford to make the call.

     Darn AJ offsuit. Next time I just fold it! :-)

     I think my M was just under 12 actually before I entered the pot. 34.8 / (2+1). So at what M do you recommend start pushing with A rag or anything half decent (or not decent!)? 4? 8? 10? I guess it depends on position, who's entered/raised the pot already, their stack size, time remaining in the round, etc. But in general, what's a good threshold for either fold or move all-in?

7. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2008-08-26 16:21:20
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   • i like this discussion and analasysis

     WHO IS THIS FLOPPY PERSON"""??

8. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-26 16:45:44
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   • HEY KYLE! Floppy is a new member of the site. She's in the Milpitas group. Remember that anybody who comes across the site can create an account and start posting in here. It's like any other online forum. :p

9. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-26 16:50:48
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   • Craig, an M of 12 is not a hand to start open-raising all in preflop. As Floppy suggested, re-raising would be reasonable. When your M is starting to dwindle, you don't want to call away bunches of chips with marginal hands. I call it marginal because it really is, especially in the face of a raise. But your M was high enough to not open-raise all in with a marginally-strong hand.

     I would not start pushing ace-rag until your M was around 7, but it has to be adjusted for the circumstances. The less people at the table, the stronger the hand is. The more tight people are playing near the bubble, the stronger the hand is. Etc. As the hand becomes situationally stronger, I'd start open-raise pushing with a bit higher M. But as the hand becomes dominantly strong (such as a large ace 3-way or any bigger pocket pair), I'd try and see a flop for a decent raise.

10. • Posted by Floppy 2008-08-27 05:52:22
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    • btw, there was indeed 6 or 7 players and I was middle-ish position. Yuri was the BB fyi. With rare exception, everyone did an add-on/re-buy option so basically everyone started with 40K chips. Six people had gone out already so average stack was about 60K.

      LOL, this newbie member didn't realize you were talking about a home game with a rebuy/add-on; I thought it was the late stage of a casino tournament. I tend to play a bit looser in home games; nevertheless, I still stand by what I posted above. Wow, I never played a home game with such a humongous starting chipstack.

      WHO IS THIS FLOPPY PERSON"""??

      I had joined a local poker group not too long ago, but after one game, the organizer was no longer able to host anymore games, so he asked members of the group if they knew anyone who'd like to host games. That's how I found out about this site.

      I've been playing poker for a few years, and here's a little blurb written about me:

      Lucy Kim, a former special events and marketing pro, is a freelance writer and senior columnist for LadiesPokerAssociation.com. She also serves as a consultant to various nonprofit groups. Nicknamed "Floppy" by her poker pals, Lucy resides in Northern California, where she continues to drag the occasional pot.

      Here are couple samples of the fun stuff I write about:

      http://www.ladiespokerassociation.com/howdoyouprepx.html

      http://www.ladiespokerassociation.com/Howtoplaythatacex.html

      I've taken a brief leave of absence from writing gigs to concentrate on other hobbies. I work full-time at a trade school in Fremont and play poker from time-to-time (local casinos, LA, Vegas, Tahoe/Reno, home games).

      I look forward to meeting y'all at some home games.

      --Lucy (a.k.a "Floppy")

11. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2008-08-27 20:15:14
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    • ok i was just curious due to the lack of a actual name used well im glad to see there is another knowledgable player posting on the site. id invite you to the huggins game on wed nights but it sounds like it wouldnt be your type of game

12. • Posted by Jason M 2008-08-27 20:36:33
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    • Nice articles, Floppy. I especially like the %-chance of another ace at the table. I'm a very math-oriented person, and although I have a good intuition about those things, I hadn't run the numbers. Pretty lazy of me not to, actually :/

      I agree with Kyle - I'm happy to see another articulate player posting on the site :) I'm sure we'll figure out how to get you in a game soon. Hopefully the Milpitas group can find a host, too.

13. • Posted by Floppy 2008-08-28 01:00:57
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    • Thanks, Kyle and Jason. Wednesday games would be difficult for me because I work 'til 7:00 or 8:00 p.m., then I have to be back at the office at 8:30 Thursday morning . . . Ugh!

      For home games (tourneys), I prefer playing with a starting chipstack of about 5,000 or less (like they do in casino tournaments) and I rarely play rebuy tourneys.

      I especially like the %-chance of another ace at the table.

      I decided to write that article after a buddy of mine went up against Katja Thater (the one who held the AK in the article, lol). My bud and I were sitting with her poker coach, Tom Gallagher, doing a post-game analysis when he reminded her about the Aces data. I memorized it in minutes and has been very useful for me.

      Tom"s a terrific poker resource. He"s observed me playing in a $125, $300 and a $1,000 buy-in tourneys, and we"ve played cash games together, so he has helped me analyze my game on different levels. There are a few other poker pro"s I use as resources, so I"d be more than happy to share my knowledge and experience with this pokersoup group.

      BTW, sorry to hijack the thread. I wish there was a New Member Intro forum.

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