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Facing an all in with no context

- Posted by Jason M 2008-09-25 22:13:42
- Here's a situation a friend ran into at a local small tournament.
  It was at a weekly tournament with 10 players, a $20 buy-in with no rebuy, and fairly loose action. The hand in question involves my friend and an opponent we don't know anything about.
  The blinds are 80/160 and there are 8 players left.
  - Friend: 5500 chips, under the gun
  - Foe: 7500 chips, button
  - Let's say the average chip stack is about 6000
  Friend opens the pot under the gun with for 500 (about 3x the big blind). Foe on the button calls and everybody else folds. Heads-up.
  Flop - pot is 1240
  
  Friend bets 540 (weak?) and Foe "looks down, scratches his temple" and calls.
  Turn - pot is 2320
  Friend bets 1080 (and has 3380 left). Foe goes all in (and covers Friend by 2000). The pot is now 4480 and Friend needs to put the rest (3380) in to call.
  Question
  What do you do? We don't have very much information on how Foe plays, and in my experience, Friend plays pretty conservatively and straightforwardly. He may be opening his game up, and this guy may not even be looking at that, so who knows...
- Posted by Ethan 2008-09-25 22:23:43
- I would probably call. With the loose play and the guy's pre-all-in action, I'd say high chance of a bluff. What did he have that a 6 suddenly made his hand? (which wouldn't even help!)? ? Pocket sixes? All of which are unlikely given the current board.
- Posted by FREMONTkyle 2008-09-25 23:44:12
- i would put foe on some kind of 8 all because strong means weak and so on. esspesially since the players your playing against from what you say dont seem smart enough to think about reverse tells
- Posted by Jason M 2008-09-26 17:36:56
- I went back and forth on this one for while. In the end, I came to these conclusions:
  - Foe could be overvaluing any ace or a pocket pair
  - Foe may be bluffing or "bluffing" - with TJ or QQ, respectively
  - It's super unlikely the 6 didn't help the opponent
  - If the Foe has an 8, why would he push on that board?
  - Pure pot odds scream call (this call only needs to be right 1/3 of the time)
  - AA and 66 are too unlikely to give much credit
  - AK is likely, but AJ, AT, and even A9 are just as likely, and as a group almost twice as likely as AK alone
  - There aren't that many hands that have an 8 in them that make sense: 78, 89, A8
  - I'd prefer to go out on a bad call (and have a good chance of being the chip leader) than a bad fold
  - And finally, it's a $20 bar tourney.
  I call.
  What would you have done differently to try not to get into this situation?
  Lead out for more on the flop and more on the turn so you don't have fold equity and must call? The bonus is he will not try to steal the pot from you. The bad news is you will only get all your money in when you are beat!
  Lead out for more on the flop and be prepared to check-fold the turn? The goal here would be to just make him fold. And if he calls, you spend the same amount of money. This still doesn't seem quite right to me. If you're beat, you lose the same amount of money. If you are ahead, he can float you and your turn check is weaker than the weak bets. You might end up folding to a bluff here a lot. However, the dude will probably just fold on the flop.
  So, if Friend was to do it over, I agree bet 3/4 of the pot on the flop. However, as it went down, I'd still call :)
- Posted by Gordo 2008-09-28 16:19:11
- Folks..... easy on the SHAL... I can't believe I am reading this--- yet alone even posting.... IT IS A $20 bar game! Take the $20 and buy a round. Depending on the bar.... buy 2.
- Posted by Jason M 2008-09-28 18:01:52
- I think Gordo is making a joke at all of us :p
- Posted by Jason M 2008-09-28 18:04:57
- That being said, I play all my games to win, but I guess I play a different style based on the buy-in, seriousness of other players, and the amount of games I have at my disposal.
  I agree with you, Alexis, that the safe move (to win the tourney more often than not) is to just fold. Either way, bet stronger on the flop, for sure.
  I don't really think the 6 helped unless the guy has 66, though. Maybe I just auto fold 97 on a A88 flop too much. I guess the guy could have been thinking "float play" and then lucked into an open-ender anyway. I don't know.
  I think a problem with me and this game would be I'd love to make that sick call :)
- Posted by WeezerMoo 2008-09-29 18:41:57
- I call.
- Posted by Art 2008-10-02 18:40:21
- Very interesting situation.
  I do have a few questions about Foes actions.
  How long did it take for Foe to call the Preflop bet?
  How long did it take for him to call the 500 post flop bet?
  Scratching his head after the flop tells me he is beat and wondering if Friend has an Ace or a pocket pair.
  Foe can think that the small bet is a sign of weakness.
  I would put Foe on Ace with small kicker or a small pair.
  I think he knows he is beat but got a feeling of weakness from Friend and tried to bluff.
  Depending on how long it took for the post flop call, I would most likey call.
  I bet Foe had A-10 or A-J and a king came on the river for a tie.
  Anyways, so what happened, what did Foe have?
  your killing me.
- Posted by Jason M 2008-10-02 20:14:17
- I got bad news for ya, Art. First, I am not sure about the length of time before the actions. Maybe Friend will get on this thread eventually and enlighten us, but probably not. My impression is that Foe called the preflop bet without much hesitation and thought for about 20 seconds while scratching his head on the flop.
  I agree it's fairly likely he has an ace that will tie or lose right here. That was definitely part of the range I put him on, and a strong move on the turn makes sense after the weakness from Friend.
  Here's the worst of the bad news - Friend folded and Foe didn't give any information to him afterwards or even after the tournament. Ouch! Hahahaa
- Posted by Art 2008-10-02 20:39:38
- DOH!!!!!
  if he did wait that long, without knowing this guy or seeing him play, I would think he had a weak Ace and thought Friend was buffing with a high pair.
  If i wanted to know I usually ask, or say what they had on the off chance they may show. :)
  Or say a comment like, "Nice bluff", and then he may show if he had a weak Ace thinking he was not buffing.
  Oh yeah, did he smile after he won? Small smile, smirk etc...
  usually means they were bluffing and got away with it.
- Posted by Jason M 2008-10-02 22:08:30
- Friend said he made some sort of comment like "I think I smell an 8" and folded. I definitely try the more antagonistic approach of congratulating them on a bluff and it usually works if they had a good hand and they care what others think of them. I'll ask Friend for that. I think I remember him saying that the guy did not react at all. Whenever I bluff I make sure I don't do that small smile/smirk :) I just laugh my ass off! Hahaha.
- Posted by Art 2008-10-02 22:39:13
- LOL- I love it!!!
  The ROFLYAS is a bit subtle but I think I will be able to see it when you do bluff on friday. ;)
  Cant wait for friday.
- Posted by Jason M 2008-10-02 23:35:04
- Absofrickinlutely
- Posted by Hoosier Daddy 2008-10-09 21:27:25
- Foe had an 8, possibly A8. He pushed all in because he figured friend was pot-committed. He slow-played the flop and the 6 did nothing. After another bet he pushed. That's how it seems to me. Good lay down. Foe knows Friend has an Ace. He has no hope of bluffing Friend off the Ace without real danger of him calling his bluff. He's hoping Friend can't get off the Aces.

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Facing an all in with no context

Flop - pot is 1240

Turn - pot is 2320

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