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Turning a Set on an Ugly Board

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1. • Posted by Jason M 2008-10-08 18:02:11
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   • I recently played at the Garden City. I was relatively new at the table, but I had some inside information about a few of the players, who were supposedly rock-ish. I get active pretty early with top pair against a short-stacked all in and double up with a turned straight against one of the rocks.

     A few hands later I'm on the button (which is $1) and 3 people limp in. I look at and decide to just throw in $2. My gut wanted to raise, but after being all in twice in the first 10 minutes, I wanted to lay low a bit.

     The flop:

     Cool, I'm out. But everybody checks to me. I check and wonder to myself what I'll do if a 3 comes up. At least I had the heart, but both blinds and 3 limpers were in the hand, so people could have any number of straights, or maybe even be slowing-playing trip fives.

     The turn: , of course

     The only player on the table that I pegged as loose/aggressive bets $25, so I am feeling pretty good. Until a player I pegged as decent calls and the guy across from me raises it up to $125. I think for a while, and the loose guy to my left (who likes to talk about what he's going to do) starts complaining and inconspicuously shows a . I don't know if it's on accident, but he's done similar things already and always folds. This act, however, prompts the raiser to say that his hand is already made and he will show it. Ugh. I believe him.

     I could be against a flush draw, straight draw, perhaps a made straight (A2 or 67), and maybe even bigger trips. I have about $225 behind, so I could raise $100 all in or call and leave that $100 for the river. Or I could fold.

     What to do?!

2. • Posted by Mr. Segan 2008-10-09 01:50:25
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   • With a Straight and Flush out there, I think thats an easy FOLD. Unless you went there drunk, then you gamble!

3. • Posted by Teresa 2008-10-09 04:33:11
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   • I'd fold

4. • Posted by Jason M 2008-10-09 06:16:54
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   • The straight was there, but there was only a flush draw at that point. And the straight cards were A2 or 67. You really think he has it? I guess with the re-raise up to $125, probably, right? Isn't 54 just as likely, though?

5. • Posted by Mr. Segan 2008-10-09 14:23:50
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   • I have played that game once and heard about it a lot. In that game, its very easily possible that someone limped in with A 2 (A rag limpers are common in that game). 4, 5 is just as likely, but right now you are invested only for $3 and that makes your decision to fold easier.

6. • Posted by Jason M 2008-10-09 16:50:56
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   • I suppose I can agree with that. There weren't enough hands in my perception of the raiser's range that I would be beating, and if I was behind a straight, I would only win 25% of the time. Still, I almost had pot odds. If he doesn't have a straight or better trips half of the time, I should call there. It turns out the raiser had and everybody else folded.

7. • Posted by Teresa 2008-10-09 16:51:48
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   • yeah you don't have a lot of money in at that point. I dunno, I never played there but I tend to play scared so I'd fear another set.

     And even if the guy showed me a flush draw I'd probably fold... which is why it takes me hoursssss to make any money at cash games

     What did you do

8. • Posted by Jason M 2008-10-09 17:10:46
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   • I don't really think it's about how much money you have in the pot. It's about math. Does the guy have me beat? What percent of the time? What percent of the time will I make my hand? Do I have odds to call. Since it's a cash game and (presumably) I have the bankroll to cover it, that's all I should be thinking about (theoretically).

     For example:

     • he has straight 50% of the time: I win 25% of those times
     • he has better trips 15% of the time: might as well say I don't win here
     • he has two pair or worse 20% of the time: I win 90% of the time
     • he has straight draw or worse 15% of the time: I win 80% of the time

     Calculating expected value... I win this hand about 42.5% of the time with those above conditions. There was 180 in the pot and I was being asked to put in 125. That means I have to have 41% pot odds. Wow. It was close there, but I really think he was ahead more than 65% of the time, which is why I folded. I didn't calculate this all out at the table, but it felt really close.

     I folded. What he said and how he acted made me think he really had it. Had he not said a word, I probably would have called and expected to put the rest of my money in on the river unless something really weird happened.

9. • Posted by Tony Gags 2008-12-09 10:21:27
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   • Well this is what you do Jason. You don't go to Garden City, you fly to Vegas go to the Wynn where there is no max buy in. You smooth call the turn cause you and the guy have 10 million effective stacks. Board pairs on the river, he ships it and you win the pot and proceed to retire.

10. • Posted by Jason M 2008-12-09 18:31:45
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    • Sounds good to me :)

11. • Posted by Graham 2008-12-10 20:08:27
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    • First of all, you know I'd fold in a heartbeat. I'm always looking for an excuse to fold in situations like those. But my first thought was about your missed raise preflop. That might have been your only shot to take the pot. I understand that you wanted to calm yourself down a bit, but you had a chance to really stoke the maniac image there without too much risk. That and it gives you more ways to win the pot. As you played it, a bet on the flop didn't have much of a chance, but it might have, had the preflop action gone differently. Get a couple guys to fold on the flop, continuation bet for the rest or possibly heads-up on the turn. Sure beats having five other hands. Thoughts?

12. • Posted by Tony Gags 2008-12-10 20:38:43
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    • A raise preflop here is kinda ok. Against loose passive opponents, I think your better off with 1-2 people limping to raise here. With 3 I think you get more value smooth calling pre so you can snap off people who tend to overplay top pair/ 2 pair here if you flop a set. There is not much value in raising small pp when your not that deep to begin with and these guys aren't paying attention anyway.

13. • Posted by Jason M 2008-12-11 00:14:49
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    • Sorry man, but I gotta agree with the UPS-man. Unlike you, the players at this game are begging for reasons to call. A raise from the crazy guy? Yeah, they call. Normally, that would be a good thing. However, this is 3-100 spread, so the maximum bet or raise is $100. If I build a medium-sized pot preflop, we aren't playing effective no-limit any longer :(

      Oh, and get this: the raising is capped at 3 raises per round, too. Messed up, huh?

14. • Posted by Graham 2008-12-11 02:37:06
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    • Ah, yeah, that info makes things different. I was assuming no-limit. I'm not sure about those spread games. The 4-40 game out here is a total shit show. Sometimes you swear it's 3/6 limit. They have a 2-8 spread now, I hear. I'd rather pay someone 100 bucks to hit me in the head with a potted plant than buy in to that game. No doubt I'll end up playing it sooner or later... That's the way that it goes.

15. • Posted by Tony Gags 2008-12-11 20:09:16
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    • Spread limilt and NL games in California blow. I hate these 30 blind max buy ins. Um yeah thats poker eeash.

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