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Patti's son John has a funny screen name

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1. • Posted by Svidri 2009-03-09 22:05:20
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   • I have been to a few pokersoup tourneys as a guest to Patti, and it's great to belong to pokersoup now!

     I just wanted to introduce myself as a new member to the website. If any league leaders would like to invite me to your league, I would appreciate it. I'm located in the South Bay Area, so if anyone has any games in that area, it would be neat to check them out.

     I've made a lot of friends playing at these home games--feel free to post here to say hi :)

     To add some "poker" to this post--I'd appreciate any input on the following hand (from memory, aprox values).

     I'd format this post better but I'm worried it will look funny (no preview).

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     Tourney - 1k/2k + 100 - 6 handed (final table) - top 2 pay

     UTG: Dave ~ 32k
     +1: John M ~ 15k
     +2: Maggie ~ 15k
     BTN: Sheila ~ 24k
     SB: John (hero) ~ 45k
     BB: Janet (villain) ~ 12k

     Pre Flop

     Hero is SB with

     1 fold, John M raises to 4k, 2 folds, Hero calls, Villain goes all in for ~12k, 1 fold, Hero ???

     Read on villain is something like 15/10/2, maybe slightly more agg, maybe tighter

     Is this always an instant call? I ended up doubling people up in this same spot three times and lost my lead. I had to get lucky in a race against Dave in the end.

     Thanks for any feedback!

2. • Posted by Maggie 2009-03-09 23:30:39
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   • My $.02 is that with your chip stack, the amount in the pot, with your current investment, no other players to act after you, and you can knock out a player, it's a good call. Even knowing that "Villian" has you beat preflop...

3. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2009-03-09 23:37:18
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   • what is this 15/10/2 stuff is this some online pokerstove type stuff?

4. • Posted by Mr Kittens 2009-03-09 23:50:55
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   • Well, knowing John M's range as being KJ QJ JT etc, I fold to him.

     But you called the raise. Janet's range is any pair and A9-AK. So you probably have to call hoping you are a 40/60 underdog. Pot has 4k+4k+12k+600= 20.6k and you have to call 8k to win 28.6k. And you still have the chip lead if you lose.

     What do you mean by 15/10/2?

     Paul

5. • Posted by Jason M 2009-03-10 05:35:37
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   • Nice to meet ya, John.

     3 considerations:

     1. You are being charged 8k to win a pot of 29k total. That's almost about 2.5-to-1 pot odds or 27%. By pure pot odds, you have to call. However, this isn't a cash game (duh).

     2. If you lose you will be down to 33k, which would be 2nd in chips Janet. 33k is still an M of 9 or so, which means you can still play poker. I think that's enough chips to play against these players.

     3. Only the top 2 spots pay, which means you have to go for the win. There's no folding into the money here.

     All the angles I would consider say to call this re-raise. However, I would have folded when the action first came to me :) I don't know John's range for a min-raise there, but you have to be beat. And Janet's shoving range has to be pretty big if she is there to win the tournament, but the hands she shoves with have you beat and maybe even dominated. If she just calls (or even if she folds), you are out of position. So, like I said, it doesn't seem worth it to put the 3k in, because you're probably committing another 8k most of the time, with or without the best hand.

     That being said, I would not mind a push on JM. Patti's range probably shrinks tremendously there, which means you can at least get heads up. If you are down with putting in 12k, raise instead of call ;)

     For the record, if JM limps in, I would limp-fold with my 5-to-1 pot odds.

     So what did Janet have? Actually, I'm more interested in what JM had. LOL. Weird move!

     BTW, we don't have a preview implemented yet (ugh), but you can edit your post and re-post it all you want. It's a crappy preview, but it works. Heh.

6. • Posted by Svidri 2009-03-10 16:50:28
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   • Please excuse this long post, as I didn't have the time to write a short one :)

     Jason,

     First off, the site is awesome! I see now that I can edit posts... I didn't mean the "no preview" as criticism, rather I was just explaining (finding an excuse?) that I suck at formatting and didn't want to try it out on my first post!

     I think all of what you said is good advice. JM was really splashing around when it got to 6max, and there was a lot of pre-flop play and hardly any flops. With the stacks the way they were, this isn't hard to imagine. I felt that the smooth-call from the SB on paper is pretty bad, but it "felt right" to see a flop and try to take it away from him on the flop. I almost always read the min-raise in this particular situation as weakness. It means, "I know I'm supposed to be aggressive in this spot, but I don't want to commit myself in the event that someone raises." This means "don't fold," especially with a rarity like at this point in the tourney. I would love to know what JM had in that spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if his range had hands like 109o or a suited K in it. These could be the bottom end of his range here.

     The BB had marginal fold equity, and she was playing so tight that I thought she would only overshove with a good hand, which statistically would happen maybe 10% of the time, and in which case the math would tell me to call thus an easy decision.

     As played I think she had and owned me.

     Looking back I probably should have jammed on JM and put someone else to the test... it's easy to "punish the short stackers" in a 10 dollar online SNG, but for 2k on the line in live play it's a lot harder to pull that trigger!!

     Everyone asking about those numbers,

     The x/y/z numbers are sort of an online terminology, and they put numeric values to "reads" on the "villain." They are VPIP/PFR/AGG. The first two are percentages, and the third one derives from an equation.

     VPIP - Voluntarily puts money into the pot. The villain voluntarily puts money into the pot preflop X% of the time. My read on Janet here is that she plays about 15% of all hands.

     PFR - Preflop raise. The villain raises this percentage of the time preflop. This is not a 3-bet stat, rather the first raise. My read here, for example, is that Janet will raise preflop with 10% of all hands.

     AGG - Preflop aggression factor. I believe the equation is AGG = (bet% + raise%)/call%, so the higher the more aggressive you are. You notice that this is one equation based on three variables. By my rudimentary understand of math, this gives you an "idea" of how aggressive someone is... but there isn't mathematically enough information to really determine how "passive" or "active" someone is based on these numbers alone.

     There are a lot of posts on 2+2 that discuss lines to play based on the opposition's tendencies, which these stats give hard values to. I guess the basic idea is "play the opponent and not your cards," but this gives you some hard values to work with.

     Note that there are more than just these 3 (usually 3bet stats and info for later street), but unless you play 1k+ hands, they are pretty meaningless. You always play opponents on later streets statistically less than preflop... for instance, I may have seen Janet play preflop 20 times, the flop 15 times, the turn 10 times, the river 2 times. So you need to play more hands for these unspecified stats to really "count."

7. • Posted by Jason M 2009-03-10 18:09:54
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   • Don't worry about the preview thing. We like feedback, and that's all I took it as :) We have been meaning to implement the preview for a while now, this the "ugh". Some day...

     Nice post and good explanation of the player read stats. I can see why you wanted to call JM there and I know what you mean about pulling the trigger. I guess what would have helped is it's only 12k max loss. Tough spot, though, especially if Janet is playing tightish. Is her getting AQ there a cooler of sorts? LOL

8. • Posted by Gordo 2009-03-12 16:28:45
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   • ..again.... Svidri?

9. • Posted by Svidri 2009-03-12 17:17:27
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   • lol I know, huh?

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