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Crazy Flush Draw Hand at the Venetian

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1. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-02 06:04:46
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   • Wowza, that's a lot of stuff to take in. I appreciate the comments - thanks :) The big take-away for me is to use pokerstove!

     I have to admit, I didn't have a good read on any of the players to my left, but I assumed anybody who would limp-call $2 to $20 under the gun +0-2 is not the best player and is probably calling with a crazy range.

     The pot was $100 and I bet out $100. Probably not the best move, but I thought my image gave me some serious fold equity, and the hand itself had a lot of value on that flop (best draw, over-cards). I wasn't that concerned about a set (I had outs) and it seemed unlikely that anybody had a set anyways (same with 98, 94, 84). I assumed most players would fold to this bet, or call with an inferior draw (and they might have a pair, but so what).

     Also, I didn't think anybody here was capable of bluff-raising me, and I was pretty sure I was calling if anybody did, as I still had almost a 30% chance to beat a set and a 50% chance to beat a pair. I think my money is going in with good pot odds if anybody shoves.

     So, I bet the $100 and all three players to my left call while the button quickly folds. LOL.

     The turn is the and the pot has $500 with me and the 3 players to my left. What now, supercomputer?! :D

2. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-02 15:07:39
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   • Well we agreed that a check was pobably the optimal play here since a check raise woulda narrrowed the field if there was a bet and would have been best to improve your equity in the hand. I think if you did bet here seems like 60 would of been your best choice since you would be pricing yourself in/ almost turning it into a value bet/semi bluff weird combo type of thing(which only can happen in a freako game like this lol), . if your a fav vs these obvious nutjobs lol. You also give yourself room with the turn card with a smaller bet/ check here. Did the stove numbers vs the turn and 3 opponents with a range of what they had and you got around 30 percent equity. This is why live is way different. Did you get any tells/ feel that these guys were super strong, calling stations, paid attention to pot size. I dunno. You put your self in a pretty tough spot here. Its weird cause with that equity on the turn and effective stacks shoving would be a negative ev play but not as bad as you would think if you got 2 callers(especially against some random one pair/ flush draw type hands. That being saids I think I just shut it down and pray for a check through. If you bet 60 on the flop this pot is only 340 or so and you have way more options. If you check your gonna have to check the turn again so I dunno man. Sividri?

3. • Posted by Svidri 2009-04-02 22:35:50
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   • Hey Jason,

     Thanks for posting a hand in the "play a hand with me" format... it's fun to read and take part in, especially since it slows everything down and you really have to think about the entire hand, street by street. Fun stuff. edit: it's also great to get other people's differing points of view :)

     By the turn, we have some good and bad things going for us:

     Goods: Nobody (probably) has a set or a made flush, because they would raise you on the flop. (edit: they would raise because they never have the nut flush and need to get your AcX hand out)

     Bads: We have built a 500.00 multiway pot OOP on a very wet board. 9845 means 76 got there, and not the dumb end either.

     So by the turn my thought process is first dedicated to villains' ranges... Fish call with their strong hands, generally speaking, rather than raising, so it's hard to put them on a range. But we are only really worried about the drawing hand that got there on the turn, 76, because flopped made hands definitely need to raise the flop to protect their equity against hands like ours. 5 is a miracle card for 76 because it gives him a nut straight instead of the dumb end that a T gives him. A thinking player that has 76 will probably raise you on the turn, and big.

     Now we think about our hand: our equity now is only 18%, because with one more card to come you need a club or a river bluff to win this pot (Ace high isn't cutting it, and if you pair your other 5 "outs," well they can't be good by now can they?).

     So I think in a 1-2nl game being OOP, let's just give ourselves the right odds to draw (pot odds + implied odds) and see if someone raises us out of a pot (probably 76). Fire 150 and see what happens.

     b/c small raises here and b/f big raises.

4. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-03 00:21:20
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   • Ya know J I didnt realize you had 800 here and the bb had over 500 as well. I really like the 150 here. Nevermind the shove statement since I thought effectice stacks were only 500. I am too lazy to post pokerstove right now but I think your equity is a little higher 25-30 percent range with the ranges I came up with that would call the flop. I think it is correct to call a shove with that equity from the guys who started with 500 stacks, and fold to the 800 stack, player specific of course.

5. • Posted by jomar 2009-04-03 02:19:24
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   • Its over, if you go all in, your called and lose. Ok I hope i'm wrong...

6. • Posted by Svidri 2009-04-03 16:25:14
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   • UPS PWNAGE said:

     Ya know J I didnt realize you had 800 here and the bb had over 500 as well. I really like the 150 here. Nevermind the shove statement since I thought effectice stacks were only 500. I am too lazy to post pokerstove right now but I think your equity is a little higher 25-30 percent range with the ranges I came up with that would call the flop. I think it is correct to call a shove with that equity from the guys who started with 500 stacks, and fold to the 800 stack, player specific of course.

     Hi UPS PWNAGE

     I think the equity is only 18% here because I'm only counting "clean outs," which are the 9 clubs left in the deck. But then there are the implied odds when you hit your hand and get to extract some extra money out, but four clubs on the board might cool the action. Might as well stab, eh? This line of thinking may be wrong, but I like to err on the side of aggression aka pwnage!!~11

     -John

7. • Posted by Teresa 2009-04-03 18:52:36
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   • They're gonna call 150, are you trying to build the pot in case you hit your flush? Unless you have a good read on them and you think they're still weak

     I'm not an aggressive player so I wouldn't keep taking stabs at the pot if I'm gonna get called and I'm probably behind. Idk, Jason is nothing like me, so yeah that's what I would do (nothing at this point) which is why it takes me 3 hours to double up lol

8. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-05 17:45:45
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   • I thought my ace or king were pretty clean outs at this point. I didn't tell you, but the guy to my left was really upset after the 2 people called behind him. The player to his left looked like he really didn't want to call, and the player to his left was the only one I was a little worried about. However, to overcall in that position with a solid made hand doesn't really make sense to me. So...

     There was about $500 in the pot, the player to my left was already all in, and I had both of my other opponents covered, who had about $400 left in chips.

     I agree I should have bet a bit smaller on the flop. In retrospect, I also wished I had opted for a check-raise, but I really thought I could take the pot down on the flop with that bet. However, based on what happened, it seems a better use of my chips would have been making an even stronger move or allowing myself to give the hand up.

     On the turn I bet half the pot ($250), fully aware that I was committing myself. I think $150 would have been too small at that point. Had I kept the pot smaller, I would have been able to get away with this. Ugh.

     The player to my left was already all in, and the player to his left thought for about three minutes, threw up his hands and said "whatever" and called. Yup, he just called, leaving $150 behind. The player to his left thought for about 30 seconds and shoved.

     So at this point there was about $1250 in the pot and it was obvious Mr. Whatever was going to call, so I was getting 9-to-1 pot odds on an assumed 9-outer (4-1). So I called. I expected that if one player shoved I would call, but I guess this was even better LOL.

     Board:

     • me:
     • UTG: ?? but he said
     • UTG+1:
     • UTG+2,

     The king-high flush draw actually had $30 more than the two-pair, so we had a $60 side pot.

     River:

     So I won the $60 side pot and cashed out for $286, down $14 for the 2-hour session. Hahahahahaha. It gets even better: the guy with the two-pair said he thought I had the flush, but he was hoping he'd get a full house. LOL.

9. • Posted by jomar 2009-04-05 19:51:40
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   • So....which one of us had this hand pegged the best?

10. • Posted by Svidri 2009-04-06 00:19:22
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    • Crazy hand, thanks for sharing!

11. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-06 04:23:54
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    • Weeeeeeeeee lol, and Sividri was right. J had 20 percent equity on turn

12. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2009-04-17 09:48:38
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    • your solid image is not very good here since there are 3 new players that dont know your solid yet

13. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2009-04-17 09:56:11
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    • id check the flop because your most liky gunna call any bet and someone with the K clubs is gunna call here so might as well keep the pot smoall on the flop get a lil more info since your able to analyze hands you dont have to thtow money into the pot to decide something and make the pot bigger. if it checks around on the turn id check again if a club comes out and just flat call then on the river i make a bigger than pot size bet basically putting whoever is left at the table all in because te K of clubs is not gunna get folded here except by very good players which are few and far between.
      if its a blank on the turn id try for a check raise if someone bets and everyone folds to you id do the min raise to build the pot plus if your able to pick up on something in his demeanor when you raise you could keep the pot small enough for the bet on the river to not have to be huge just in case your wrong. and if the club comes you built up a lil value here if its blank turn and you hit the A or K on river i put in a small value bet something like 40% of the pot

14. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-21 04:07:03
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    • i agree the solid image did not apply to these guys. i also think i was a little to greedy, based on how well i had been playing and hitting cards earlier. the prudent play here would have been just chilling out and paying the minimum to hit the nuts :/

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