PokerSoup Forums > General > nut flush draw vs. pair

nut flush draw vs. pair

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1. • Posted by Craig 2009-04-05 18:57:13
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   • So here's a situation I had. Its the 4th or 5th round in a tourney, I have an average stack, about an M of 12. I had in middle position. I think I limped in. Person to the left of me made it 3x and has an M of about 10. Everyone else folds, I call. Flop is Q, rag rag but there are two clubs. I bet about 2/3 the pot. The person to my left goes all in.
     I have him slightly covered but would be felted if my hand doesn't improve. I think he has KQ or JQs. I have only only ace high but am on the nut flush draw and runner runner straight draw, and ace draw.
     What would you do?

2. • Posted by jomar 2009-04-05 20:01:10
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   • Call... this is a low stakes game, right?

3. • Posted by Frederic 2009-04-05 20:29:05
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   • Against a totally random hand you'd be a 76% favorite, but if you think you opponent had a queen, your chances drop to 52% in general, to 46% if his kicker was one of the two "rags" (he's got two pairs,) or even 36% if he happened to start with pocket queens. So at best, you should think of it as a coin flip.

     The final decision is more on the strategic side: if there are already some big stacks way ahead of you and you can't win without breaking from the pack too, you go for it and happens what happens. On another hand, if the spread is tight around the average, you should keep your chips for a better chance.

     What did you do? How did it go?

4. • Posted by Pokermom 2009-04-05 20:42:26
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   • This kinda doesn't make sense. How would you be felted if you had your opponent covered by 2 rounds of blinds? (you say you had an M of 12 and he has an M of 10). Anyway...

     Okay, M = 1.5 x BB (with no antes - I'm presuming no antes)

     CONVERTING YOUR STACKS TO BB

     You have M of 12 = 1.5 X 12 = 18 chips (18 BBs)
     Opponent has M of 10 = 1.5 x 12 = 15 chips (15 BBs)

     Preflop you call 3 chips. 6.5 chips dead (you, opponent, sb)

     On flop, you bet out 2/3 pot = 4.5 chips

     Opponent raises to 12 chips all in.

     16.5 chips dead
     7.5 chips to call

     10.5 chips fold equity/1.5 = M of 7

     POT ODDS = 2.2:1

     How many outs do you have?

     9 clubs - probably, but should be discounted to 7
     Aces - probably not, but maybe (if opponent has KK, yes) I'd give you 1 out for this

     So, roughly, 8 outs that are live with some runner, runner straight possibilities.

     Likely hands opponent has:

     AK
     AQ
     AJ
     KK
     QQ
     JJ
     Any pocket pair 9+
     Any club suited connectors

     For 8 outs, the math says that you need 2.2:1 to call. And, yes, you have fold equity (M of 7) - THIS IS IMPORTANT, YOUR OPPONENTS KNOW YOU WELL AND KNOW YOU WILL FOLD IF YOU HAVE FOLD EQUITY MORE TIMES THAN NOT. You bet too little on the flop - opening the door for a move.

     If antes are involved, this is an insta-call.

     If no antes, this is a borderline decision.

     So, most of your opponents know that they can make you fold. If they hit a set on the flop, they would not raise all in. So take QQ out of the equation (unless it was a scaredy cat super tight player). You limp-called 3X, which screams you are weak - another reason to come over the top of you. They know that they can make you fold KQ in this situation.

     Ironically, this is probably the best situation for you to call. Your opponent is most likely bluffing you with the best hand here (AK or AJ), BUT, you have committed a ton of chips to the pot (over 40% of your stack!), and if they do have AK or AJ, you picked up at least 3 more outs, which would also make this somewhat of an insta-call from a pot odds perspective. As no more money is going in, pot odds/implied odds are the same.

     You should have called (or never have been in the hand in the first place). There is a long way to the money if you are at round 4/5, and this was the perfect hand to hit and almost double up and have a shot at 1st place and real money rather than grinding to bottom money (which is what you did, right?).

     Consider the player. Consider the bet. Be willing to lose. That's the only way to win. If you honestly believed your ace was live, you should have called here.

     Alternatively, I would have raised with ATs preflop or folded to the 3X raise. I would not have limp called with that hand out of position, unless I was willing to stuff it on the flop or there were a lot of callers, giving me juicy pot odds. Heads up, out of position - yeeech.

5. • Posted by jonschwartz 2009-04-05 21:52:59
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   • Craig said:

     So here's a situation I had. Its the 4th or 5th round in a tourney, I have an average stack, about an M of 12. I had in middle position. I think I limped in. Person to the left of me made it 3x and has an M of about 10. Everyone else folds, I call. Flop is Q, rag rag but there are two clubs. I bet about 2/3 the pot. The person to my left goes all in.
     I have him slightly covered but would be felted if my hand doesn't improve. I think he has KQ or JQs. I have only only ace high but am on the nut flush draw and runner runner straight draw, and ace draw.
     What would you do?

     this isn't exactly how it went down. you raised 3x in ep, i called next to go. that's sort of an important piece of information. i was really on the fence between shipping it, or maybe even folding, but decided just to call.

6. • Posted by Pokermom 2009-04-05 22:46:19
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   • That does change everything. The position is early, not middle. Craig initiates the raise and doesn't limp call. AND it's against... The Schwartz.

     If Schwartz smooth called my 3X raise and maintained position on me after all the preflop betting action, and we are head's up, I'd be worried. He's a better player than I am, I have an inherently weak starting hand and I'm facing one of 2 likely scenarios.

     1) He might actually have a hand (it's been known to happen, I hear), or
     2) No matter what, he will try to take that pot from me if he has a hand or doesn't (Jon plays every hand to win)

     Sorry, Jon, but if I foolishly made it 3X to go in early position (was it a full table?) with ATs, and you just called me, I would have been all in on that flop (and I would have check folded any flop that didn't help me). If you fold, I scoop a nice pot. If you call me with a better hand, I have outs, any other bet or check and I open the door for you to take that pot out from under me, which, I'm thinking is what you might have done here...

     "Ace-ten suited in early position is a very marginal hand. At a tough table, I would often just throw it away. At a table of feebs, I'd limp." - Harrington on Hold'Em, Volume I, page 183

7. • Posted by Craig 2009-04-06 00:09:18
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   • Ya, I got some of the important details wrong. And ya, it was against The Schwartz (very important factor!)

     So we started with 11 people and were down to 9. There were antes. The stakes (I don't think it actually matters much for game theory analysis) were between low and medium, but depends on who you ask. I'm not exactly sure about the M's either but it was in the ballpark. What's the saying about the devil and the details?!

     Well, no surprise, I folded where I was mostly like on a draw to win. I didn't find out what The Schwartz had but I think he had hinted after the hand that he had a Q. Of course, it could have been a false hint.

     I obviously skimmed over that section of Harrington on Hold'em too quickly. Or, maybe I was just trying to shake up my reputation. Raising with marginal hand. I'm just wild! (or foolish ;-)

     btw, the dealer ran the cards after I folded but didn't let anyone else see. He said another Q came but there was also another club!

     As always, thanks for the analysis.

8. • Posted by Svidri 2009-04-06 00:25:15
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   • Responding to OP (didn't read the whole thread yet)

     I think it's a fist pump here with the effective stack @ 16ish BBs, but it's a high variance play and you may wish to preserve "tournament equity" or whatever...

     Let me put it another way... if you are playing ATs, what flops are you looking for to get all the money in?? If not this one??? If you can't answer that question easily, then you should fold preflop and wait for a better spot.

9. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-06 04:17:45
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   • Ship the flop for every reason you have heard above.

10. • Posted by Pokermom 2009-04-06 15:30:05
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    • Svidri said:

      Let me put it another way... if you are playing ATs, what flops are you looking for to get all the money in?? If not this one??? If you can't answer that question easily, then you should fold preflop and wait for a better spot.

      Very well put.

11. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-15 05:49:31
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    • This is probably too late, but I don't like the limp in the first place. Maybe the game composition is different than usual, but I either fold or raise here. With an M of 12, you still have some play, but not if you limp off a few Ms.

      I agree with Svidri that this seems like a great place to shove, but I would only do it against a player who is capable of folding after the presented action. I prefer not to be all in with a draw in a tournament. Cash game - fine. Cheap online tournament - eh, maybe. Live tournament worth some decent money - I think I can do better than that.

12. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2009-04-17 09:06:45
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    • ok ill follow jason with the late analasys its late i know i spelled it wrong against the john in this spot id probablly check the flop if im craig and let john commit chips then id shove everyone knows craig plays ultra conservative this is the only reason why i folded top 2 pair to you at daves house if that hand had happened against john no way i think of folding giving him credit for a set but yes i CHECK SHOVE WITH YOUR REP craig and live with the out come id say your about 30% to actually have the best hand without havin to hit draws and if he does have you beat hes got something like J9

13. • Posted by jonschwartz 2009-04-18 10:47:54
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    • i just never have a hand do i?

14. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-21 04:12:24
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    • LOL. Jon, I'd say the limit of you not having a hand approaches infinity as your opponent's strength shown approaches zero.

15. • Posted by Svidri 2009-04-22 01:27:48
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    • Jason M said:

      LOL. Jon, I'd say the limit of you not having a hand approaches infinity as your opponent's strength shown approaches zero.

      looks through old calculus books

      that's some deep shania son

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