top pair vs ???

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1. • Posted by Craig 2009-04-15 02:36:35
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   • In effort to become a better play (one can hope) I am yet again looking for opinions/analysis on a hand. I'm going to reveal what happened gradually.

     setup:
     home game, 2 tables, we're down to the final table. 8 people left. I have about 17K, average is 21K. Blinds recently went up to 400/800 w/ 100 ante. I'm in the SB. Everyone folds around to cut-off who raises it to 2.8K (or close to it). This player has me covered by roughly 8K. Button folds. I look down at AQos.

     What would you do: fold, call, raise?

2. • Posted by Teresa 2009-04-15 03:08:17
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   • who was the raiser

3. • Posted by Foster 2009-04-15 03:40:10
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   • PUSH................OR FOLD

4. • Posted by Teresa 2009-04-15 04:34:48
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   • why is the title "top pair vs ??"

5. • Posted by Craig 2009-04-15 05:08:42
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   • oppps. it's a clue!!!
     raiser was Scuba.

6. • Posted by Teresa 2009-04-15 05:16:42
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   • you called and there was a queen on the flop huh lol... yeah i'd either push or fold

7. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-15 05:40:58
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   • What is his image of you. Are you a blind defender? Do you give them up easy? Scuba is a good enough player to base his decisions on this so his range probably widens or narrows with your image and what he thinks your image of him is. Once you gather that info I think you can come up with a decision based on a range. That being said if you called and hit top pair I am check raising all in on that flop cause you are getting cbet there Id say 99 percent from scuba with those stack sizes and if you called with aq what are you hoping to hit besides top pair to get it in here. OH and I know what I would do preflop vs him but thats based on my info, and I might see him someday, so no spies are getting that free info from me lol.

8. • Posted by Craig 2009-04-15 05:55:18
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   • ok....so I did the one thing Colt recommend NOT to do: call. (note: he probably recalls this hand since he dealt it, thank you very much)

     flop is 5 9 Q rainbow.

     now what?

9. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-15 06:00:16
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   • Bet 3800 fold to a shove, or check raise for your stack. If you check called here I see hate mail coming in your future :) lol

10. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-15 06:18:07
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    • Tony's analysis is spot on. Hey T, let us have a chance before you post LOL.

      Based on what I think Scuba thinks about Craig, I'd say Scuba is raising pre-flop a little light here. Your M was 8, so ship it. Or maybe fold. But absolutely don't call (props to the Colt-master).

      After that flop, I expect the Scuba to bet if you check, so let him do the pulling for you and raise it up! I only donk in to my opponents with 2-pair or better, especially if they are good players :) I'll let you figure out why...

11. • Posted by Mr. Segan 2009-04-15 06:55:14
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    • Too bad I know what happened in this game. You made the right move to Craig, Scuba is one lucky SOB!

12. • Posted by Tony Gags 2009-04-15 14:07:36
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    • I'll tell you why J.. Cause the next time you are on my right your gonna pull this on me and have nothing since you will be thinking, hey Tony read that post he thinks I have 2 pair here lol. You are a meta game genius imo :) lol

13. • Posted by Jason M 2009-04-16 04:13:11
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    • shhhhh! ;)

14. • Posted by Craig 2009-04-16 04:44:57
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    • I figure I had the best hand after the flop: QQ with top kicker. I pretty much knew I'd be getting all my chips in but I did it in the wrong order. I checked. Scuba bet ~3.8K making the pot about 11K. I push all-in with about 14K, about another 10K for Scuba, about 2.5:1. I think Scuba puts me on missing the flop with AK, AJ or a low pair and he calls flipping over J9os. He has middle pair (99).
      turn: K
      river: T

      9TJQK = a straight for Scuba.

      my 1st error: probably should have shoved pre-flop.
      my 2nd error: definitely should have bet-out all-in immediately after the flop. That would have kept the pot odds much lower for a call. (~1.5:1)

      That's what I get for slow-playing top pair. Hopefully I'll remember this lesson next time! LOL

15. • Posted by Teresa 2009-04-16 05:05:56
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    • next time he'll have Kings.. lol

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