PokerSoup Forums > Strategy > another crazy hand with nut flush draw

another crazy hand with nut flush draw

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1. • Posted by Krishna 2009-05-09 19:37:12
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   • I am sure lot of you think this is standard but I want to discuss some concepts here.
     1. When we have tons of equity, how do we decide call versus raise

     You are playing tough game with 100BB stacks. lets assume full ring.
     You call early position raise with AsKh
     Flop comes Ts7s3s
     He bets pot?
     What would you do?
     What is your plan on later streets?

2. • Posted by James P. 2009-05-10 05:21:56
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   • Hi Krishna, I'm a noob with regards to posting so bear with me. I'd be curious to have more info about that hand. Was it heads up? If not, how many players and how much was in the pot? Did the villian have 100BB as well? What is his image and what is yours? The pot size bet screams over pair unless he likes to make expensive C-bets.

     Anyway, in isolation, this isn't a flop I would get super excited about. I don't like calling because your openent is going to put you on a flush draw and you're not likely to get paid if another spade hits. (I'd raise for sure with AKs with 2 spades on the flop and be willing to play for stacks.) So I think you have to fold or raise. And if you raise are you going to call if he 3 bets all in? Again, the size of the pot and his stack size are very important here.

3. • Posted by Krishna 2009-05-10 14:45:08
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   • You are not a noob if you are thinking about all these variables.

     Full ring (online or live). Opponent is tight and aggressive. Your image is semi loose and aggressive (not a nit for sure).
     Pot is the blinds (1.5BB), his raise preflop (4BB) and you call. Around 9BB.
     He bets 9BB.

     You are right about "if you raise, would he call his allin"?

4. • Posted by James P. 2009-05-10 18:27:18
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   • Thanks, that's good info.

     Let's go through the raising scenario and say you raise the pot after his bet. This means you'd be making it 36BB to go (27BB more). Let's see your equity against his range:

     AA: 37%
     KK (no spade): 46%
     QQ (no spade): 52%
     set: 28%
     flush: 28%
     AK: on a freeroll, but scoop 32% if he has and 36% if not

     You're anywhere from freerolling to almost 4 to 1 dog.

     So if he raises all-in another 100-27-9-4=60BB, there will be 100+40=140BB in the pot and you'll have to call 60BB to win 140BB. You'll need about 43% to call, which you probably have to do as the only holdings that have you in trouble are a sets and flushes and a flush is unlikely given his range and action and sets are hard to make.

     Of course, the positive expectation of a play like this is the fold equity, because you win when he folds to your raise on the flop. I think raising here is OK if you don't mind the high variance play, but given your opponents image, position, and flop bet, and I think you're getting called here more times that you would like, but you can never know for sure. You've got outs even against a set or a flush (and flush is unlikely given you have the and he's in early position), so you have, as you said, lots of equity in the pot.

     I think the question boils down to how likely you think your opponent is going to fold on the flop? Did you have a read on him at all? What's the smallest raise you think he will fold to on the flop? Raising the pot ensures you have to call if he shoves, but there are smaller raises that will do that and still get him to fold.

     A couple of other comments: did you consider reraising pre-flop with and position to isolate? I'm not saying you should have, just wondering if you thought about it to isolate the blinds and be the aggressor on the flop. Then's the pot is bigger and I like making a move at it more on the flop. Of course, if the villian comes back over the top pre-flop, you're hating live.

     I'm also interested to see what people thinking about flat calling on the flop with position. Again, I don't like that so much because you're unlikely to win more if you make your flush, but you might buy yourself a free card on the turn.

5. • Posted by James P. 2009-05-10 18:52:06
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   • Something I forgot: had you made any other big semi-bluffs at this table or against this opponent beforehand? If so, you're opponent is more likely to put you on a semi-buff and call you down light. Light in this case would be any one pair hand. Although, if even if you turned your hand face up, I would hate calling with something like here.

6. • Posted by Svidri 2009-05-11 18:32:03
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   • My analysis pasted from Krishna's blog...

     In this hand the EP raiser is repping overs and I think we are fine against this range, just get it in. The only hand in EP's opening range that crushes us is TT. He is just Cbeting big to "charge draws." You have huge equity on the flop... mess with pokerstove and see how you do against a tight range. He probably shuts down with a 4flush, A, or K turn card, so just get it in now while you are ahead.

     This is my thought, maybe it's a leak, I'm not sure... you are probably less happy to get it in as a blind against a BU or CO open, but maybe I would still get it in there, though play is a little different based on position... but then again I 3B this 100% of the time so I'm not sure I would run into this situation.

     One last note... if you are only 3Betting with JJ+ and AKs, this is only 2.1% of all hands, and when the regs start getting a load of hands on you, they will exploit you. You said you 3B AKo like 80% of the time, so you probably already know this... :)

7. • Posted by FREMONTkyle 2009-05-12 22:27:17
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   • ok in this spot i think him having a flush is highly unliky id lay 2 to 1 here that he didnt given the info on him.
     a set just as unlikly given a tight player would not raise 4 bb here with 77 or less i would think no less than TT here. and even that is a question.
     a tight player here making that bet is because hes scared of your image and the likly holdings you hit a monster here. so i definatly go for the re raise here because a tight player with no K of spades is likly to fold QQ and possibly KK. of the hands that youd be up agaisnt your only a dog to the AA and TT he could be continuation betting here with JJ, QQ, KK, AK and maybe AQ. of these hands which is he really gunna re shove on you here with KK, AA, TT so your re raise doesnt really have to be too much and if he shoves then you can decide if your gunna call since your re raise only has to be 15 more BB in these spots against tight players smaller bets are genearally more feared and get you the same info as a pot commiting re raise.

     So here is the break down
     13BB commited each after his pot size bet on flop your re raise of 15-18BB leaves you with 68-71BB with a pot of 42-45BB if he shoves pot is now 130.5-133.5BB and your still getting the right price i believe
     and now you have another set of actions to make your decision based off of and if you get a last minute feel he has the set and you dont want to gamble youve got jiggle room to fold instead of putting yourself in a spot to have to call plus with the money you saved making the smaller raise you can do it a few more times in the game because tight players are the best to pick on as we all know and there the greatest targets LOL.
     Now with your re raise what hands is a good tight player gunna put you on 89os, 89 spades, AK A spades
     ,AK K spades, 45 spades, 56 spades, KQ spades, AQ A spades, KQ K spades
     AA, KK, QQ, either with a spade JJ, 99
     there there is the real lovly TT, 77, 33

     then there is also the chance that if hes a passive tight player he would just flat call buying you a free card since your in position and can check the turn or if you feel hes really tight fire an all in on the turn which has a better chance of getting him off his hand if hes a passive player on the turn.

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