Tough Decision With Jacks
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Here's the situation:
45-person $24+6 Sit-N-Go on Full Tilt. It's the top 6 and 6 people get paid ($400, $270, $200, $140, $100, $60). The blinds are 200/400 and going up to 300/600 soon. I have been fairly active, stealing blinds and playing pots, because I have been on the short stack for most of the tournament. I move up to 4th in chips and and get my money in behind against a player with less chips. My pocket pair sucks out to his overpair (runner-runner straight lol) so now I am the chip leader with 17k in chips. At these blind levels one pot makes the difference between being short-stacked and the chip leader. Crazy.
Anyway, the very next hand I'm on the button and get dealt
. Everybody folds and I raise it to 2000. This was more than what I had been raising in the past. My devious plan was to make it seem like the loose new chip leader is making a steal at the blinds. :pI'm elated to see the 2nd chip leader (13k) raise me to 5000 from the big blind. It appears he has fallen into my trap, but if I get all my money in and lose, I'm down to 4k or so, which means I'm on my way out.
What should I do?
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Thanks for the comments, everybody. So here's what happened...
When the guy raised me, I did figure him for a re-steal to my apparent steal. Had I not been involved in a lot of pots, I would not have given this much weight. Perhaps it was just wishful thinking.
I raised all in, he called, and he had
. I went out in fifth place. Oops!I think the shove is the right move, perhaps even without the table image I had. He gets first action on the flop. If I call, the pot has ~11k in it and he has 8k while I have 12k. He was definitely a good player, and I think most players will take the lead right there and shove on most flops, whether they hit or not.
That puts me in the position of potentially making a huge mistake. I can't fold whenever an ace, king, or queen comes. They won't have it every time. And I can't get a read of whether or not my opponent has two pair, a straight, or a flush. The bottom line is it is very hard to make the right play against a good aggressive opponent here. Therefore, get it in preflop. Or fold. :/
I know some of the more conservative players would disagree. I remind them that this was a $26 online tournament that I can enter any time of any day and not lose any sleep. I probably won't play as "recklessly" (even if it is correct in the long run) at a larger buy-in live game. Then again, there is more to study than betting patterns in those games...
Thoughts?
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I wouldn't know how conservative people play, so I say going all-in
is the only thing to do.
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