PokerSoup Forums > Strategy > Push or not push in Las Vegas tourney

Push or not push in Las Vegas tourney

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1. • Posted by E 2009-09-18 05:30:24
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   • So here is the situation: We are four-handed. I just doubled up to become slight chip leader after being a micro-stack for the whole tournament. Not much difference in prize money between 3rd and 4th place. I have ~46K in chips with 147K chips in play. The rest of the people are fairly even in chips. Unfortunately I am a little bit fuzzy on what the blinds were at the time. I have pocket 10's UTG. I think the blinds were 1500-3000 with with 400 ante, or 2K-4K with 500 ante. I remember thinking that I want to gamble on getting lots of chips (everyone was playing very tight) so I just pushed all-in. It was past 2am and the brain was not working anymore... My question is how big a mistake is it to push in that situation vs. just raising 2.5 or 3BB's?

2. • Posted by Jason M 2009-09-18 06:18:52
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   • A raise 2.5-3 would be about 10k-15k, depending on what the blinds were. That's a third of your stack. If you had 46k of 147k in play and everybody else had about the same, they all had about 30k. If you raise to 10k-15k and the pot already has 6k-8k, that makes 16k-23k in the pot, and then somebody shoves for 30k. Will you call 7k-14k into a pot of 30k with pocket tens? Yes, yes, you will. So, if somebody has AA-JJ or AK/AQ it's gonna all go in. Right? If so...

     You have to analyze the rest of the hands. Does going all in vs. raising to over half of somebody's chip stack change anything? Will somebody shove KQ if you raise to 2.5-3x but fold it if you are all in? Maybe, if they don't understand pot-commitment. Probably not, though. I think you need to shove just in case people will fold their overcards. If you make a small raise, they might just decide to get it in there.

     Better yet, don't shove, just raise to 35k. It does the same thing but looks stronger. Dumb hands like KQ/KJ might fold but you might get somebody willing to "flip" with 99 or something.

3. • Posted by Svidri 2009-09-18 17:18:26
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   • I think you got it right the first time. If it's come down to 2 card chicken (ie the table doesn't want to take flops and play some POKER), this is a clear shove. You get a lot of combinations that flip with you (KQ, KJ, QJ) to fold their equity share of the pot, especially with the big blinds here that's pretty valuable.

     The reason the bet/call line is bad is because it invites the hands that flip with us which we fold out with a jam ourselves to overjam on us. If you bet/call to see your opponent flip over KQ this is a complete disaster. There are a lot more combinations of KQ/KJ/QJ (48) than 99/88 (12).

     Bet/fold is just bad. TT is the 5th best starting hand. Obviously we are taking it to the felt 4-ways with these stacks.

4. • Posted by Svidri 2009-09-18 17:20:04
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   • Oh yeah I forgot to mention... since you are the chip leader... if you get to showdown with your TT, it will protect your future jams, even if you lose the pot, because you will still be alive in the tournament.

5. • Posted by Jason M 2009-09-18 22:22:56
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   • Svidri said:

     I think you got it right the first time. If it's come down to 2 card chicken (ie the table doesn't want to take flops and play some POKER), this is a clear shove. You get a lot of combinations that flip with you (KQ, KJ, QJ) to fold their equity share of the pot, especially with the big blinds here that's pretty valuable.

     The reason the bet/call line is bad is because it invites the hands that flip with us which we fold out with a jam ourselves to overjam on us. If you bet/call to see your opponent flip over KQ this is a complete disaster. There are a lot more combinations of KQ/KJ/QJ (48) than 99/88 (12).

     Bet/fold is just bad. TT is the 5th best starting hand. Obviously we are taking it to the felt 4-ways with these stacks.

     isn't that what i said? lol. perhaps not as eloquently... i guess it's good we agree anyway! :p but i like the non-shove-but-cover-everybody move, which is effectively all in.

6. • Posted by TonyBerman 2009-09-18 22:48:32
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   • What place did you end up coming in? Or was this just a hypothetical?

7. • Posted by E 2009-09-19 01:30:01
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   • Nothing is ever hypothetical. I find I learn much better from experience. Anyway, obviously my pocket 10's ran into pocket Kings. But then I got 10's again and doubled up to almost even with everybody else. Then we played for a while and my A9 all in lost to a KJ call and I got 4th place. I think the blinds were 3K-6K with 500 antes, so it was an all-in fest. In hindsight I did not play perfectly on some hands before the 10s. I think I was so grateful to still be in, I did not take the tournament as seriously as I should have.

     It was just an odd tournament statistically speaking. What are the odds of not getting any pocket pairs or AK or AQ in 3.5 hours (100+ hands)? We were at the final table (10/49) when I finally got a pocket pair. By the time we were four-handed I survived so many called all ins, I was just mentally exhausted.

     I won one pot in the first hour. After the first break the antes kicked in, but I was card-dead. I could not play a hand with a super-aggressive massive stack one off my left. It was so sad. I was down to 850 with 300-600 blinds 50 ante when I made my last stand (yes, I know I am not supposed to get to that low). It was so lame that when I got my I just limped for 600 so people wouldn't laugh at my "raise" of 250. So I limp and then someone goes all in and someone else calls. They have 7c7x and QQ. I am all in with my 56 and everybody is laughing because I make some crack about waiting for a quality hand like 6 high to get my chips all in. Then we all laugh again as I river a flush to go back to ~4K. I tell myself that I am not going to get to that spot again, so soon after I get I push again, the bigstack BB says "I have to call" and does with JJ. Flop is A3x, followed by another 3 on the turn and I double up again. A couple of orbits later I am getting short again so I push with and get called by the lady on my left with AQ. The flop is all black, the turn is a Jack so I am happy, and get the nut flush on the river anyway, apparently there are 4 spades on the board that I did not notice. Crazy hah?
     And this is how I made the final table, always as the short stack...

8. • Posted by Craig 2009-09-19 05:22:49
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   • 56 suit and TT are quality hands!
     That's 'bout all I have to contribute strategy wise.
     Nice job make'n da money E.

     Side note: can't believe I've gone this long without ever watching "The song remains the same." Thanks VH1!

9. • Posted by Jason M 2009-09-19 05:29:25
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   • When I played in the first of the two WSOP events this year, I really found out what card dead is. I played for over 7 hours and got: AQ, AT, TT, 77x3, 66x2, 55, 44 and the rest were worse. The best part is I actually increased my stack with these hands :) It's not about the cards!

     Nice work in any case, E. Your shove was the right move.

10. • Posted by Svidri 2009-09-21 19:38:15
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    • Jason M said:

      Better yet, don't shove, just raise to 35k. It does the same thing but looks stronger. Dumb hands like KQ/KJ might fold but you might get somebody willing to "flip" with 99 or something.

      For some reason I thought you wanted to bet/call, but I realized that 35k is covering everyone at the table.... wp Jason :)

11. • Posted by Jason M 2009-09-21 23:19:40
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    • Svidri said:

      For some reason I thought you wanted to bet/call, but I realized that 35k is covering everyone at the table.... wp Jason :)

      Hah. Thanks. I'll give you a "WP" for "well put". My brain is usually mush by the time I get to my "fun" activities like using PS.

      One thing E should consider with the 35k bet is that if she's doing her usual "I don't know what's going on" shtick ("oops, I didn't realize that little of a raise would put everybody else all in"), it might have the reverse consequences. I think she could figure out how to use that to her advantage, though.

12. • Posted by E 2009-09-22 06:02:20
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    • You guys are funny. I don't know what kind of cleverness/schtick anyone would have fallen for after playing together for five hours. Talk about funny, I got another 4th place finish yesterday at P&L's. I should post the last hand of that one, I got knocked out calling instead of pushing (for a change).

13. • Posted by Svidri 2009-09-22 16:18:18
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    • What was the action?

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