1. 2011-10-17 15:50:43

   BAY101 - The curse of pocket Kings

   
   So, I've played this last Saturday, at San Jose's BAY101. Played once there before: a Shooting Star satellite where I busted early with pocket Kings, against an aggressive pocket Aces. This time, it's a $200 buy-in tournament, 90-some entrants, starting with 10,000 chips. Blinds go fast (20 minute rounds) with early antes. They pay top-12, but 6 through 12 are lame money back equivalents, only top-spots seem worthwhile.

   Hand setup: down to 24 players on 3 tables, I am the second biggest stack with close to 80,000 chips, twice the chips average. Chip leader is around 120,000 chips, mostly because he's busted the last 4 players at our table, calling them with sub-premium hands. He's a gambling loose Asian guy, who has not shown real good poker skills (a couple of young guys, on the other hand, worried me more because they were awful good...) At the end of last round, he was bullying folks a lot, playing his big stack with not too much subtlety. My image at the table is solid: I have not lost one hand on show down, showing Aces once, pocket Jacks, and , oh and I've not been caught bluffing (though I did my fare share of it).

   Back from break, blinds are 1,500 and 3,000 with 300 antes I believe. I am under the gun with so I raise to 11,000 (I've consistently raised an unopened pot 3xBB plus extra for antes). The chip leader is on my left and announces pretty quickly "all-in", my worse case scenario as I was not looking forward a confrontation against him. It's of course folded down to me. I've tanked several minutes, which is very unusual from me.

   "Be safe, fold..." says the voice. In the past few weeks, I have busted early twice in our WPT League managing to get someone all-in with me and my pocket Kings, only to see they had Aces. And I busted at the Bay101 18 months ago on that setup too. I have over 60,000 chips left if I fold. He must have Aces... Money is not far and there are a few short-stacks...

   "Yet..." I'm thinking. That guy could have Aces, right, and he would play them probably like that. But he could have a big or middle pair (he busted 2 guys with tens...) or a big ace. He raised so fast, not much thinking went into it. Also, I'm not trying to survive to 12th position and win $225. Against some other excellent players I've seen around, I'll need a strong stack, a double-up would be welcome. Final trigger: the read. After a long while, I asked him "it would not be happening again: you really have pocket Aces?" And for a fraction of a second, I thought he reacted nervously, like he was shocked, surprised, worried. I read some weakness. And while until now he had been waiting looking strong and laid back on his chair, he now came closer to the table. So I called. He seemed unhappy, and showed Two players said they folded an Ace: one I believe, the BB with whom I've played for over an hour, the other I doubt. I'm at least 72% to double-up, add 5% for each potential dead ace.

   Flop comes and I am now 86% to win. Turn is and he's down to less than 7%. River is - end of story.

   Back in the same spot, I believe I'd reach the same conclusion and do it again. That's poker.

   Posted by Frederic at 2011-10-17 15:50:43

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Comments on “BAY101 - The curse of pocket Kings”

1. • Posted by Tony Gags g 2011-10-17 17:35:44
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   • givin the earlier description of his image this is a snap call. Only think that could happen here is you tanking and talking yourself into a bad fold. Sux man tough beat.