1. 2012-04-05 01:41:43

   Playing a 4-flush post-flop

   
   During last Saturday's tourney at Thunder Valley, my last move has been to move all-in post flop with a 4-flush. Sunday, at our league game, I called a big bet with a flush draw only, yet I folded a later hand post flop despite having a 4-flush, and much later I called Laurie's all-in post-flop with a 4-flush. So, what's the rational? We talked about it, but I fear I confused people, so here are some thoughts on the matter I wanted to share (to the risk of confusing everyone!)

   HAND 1:

   On my button, with ~23,000 left, blinds at 800-1,600 and 200 antes, UTG+3 raises to 4,500; I call from the button with and so does the BB. Flop comes , I have top-pair and the 2nd nut flush; BB checks, UTG+3 c-bets to 7,500; I raise all-in to 18,500; BB folds but UTG+3 calls and shows pocket fives for a set. Turn is the to make my flush, river is an eight for his full-house and my demise
   >>> Let's break it down. The range for UTG+3 to raise is pretty open: any pair, any ace, suited connectors, all are fair game at this stage of the tournament. My call in position allows me to push on him if he shows any weakness in later streets, or if I hit the board. I could make this call with practically any cards. The BB is already partially in, and my call definitely prices him in. So action pre-flop is pretty typical. The 8h5s2s flop is somewhat connected, suited, so UTG+3 c-bet is to be expected regardless of his hand, plus it seems relatively unlikely that the board would hit us strongly. What are my options? Fold: no way. I hit top pair, a decent kicker, and have the 2nd nut flush draw. Call: the 7,500 is ~40% of my stack, my odds to hit a spade on the turn are only 1 in 5 (9 outs once) and I have less chances to improve my hand than I potentially give that guy by just calling. Also, I price the BB in to stick around and possibly outflop me, so a call seems pretty weak. Raise: now I know I'll have 2 streets to hit my 5th spade, another 8 or pair my King to outdraw the original raiser, and he would have to call without knowing if he improves or if I do during those 2 streets: sounds like a good deal. Also, getting back to his range, even if he suspects I have a straight or flush draw, he would be leary to risk so much (he had me covered but not by much) with an overpair or any Ace. Only hands he can call with are {55}, {22} or {88} as he's got a set, or a flush draw of his own, though he'd call probably only with the nut flush draw (AsXs). So I shove... too bad he had precisely the killer 55!!

   OK, this one got me more than a couple of comments, and all about one thing: what was I thinking when I got involved in that hand?! I've missed to provide a few elements. First, my stack, even close to an M of 10, was around half the average stack in the room, and I needed to make something happen before I had lost all prospect to make top-10. When I got moved to that table, I had just below 30,000 chips and got decimated by blinds and antes, raises from bigger stacks and all-ins from shorter stacks. But the key element was the raiser himself: this was his 3rd raise in 10 or 12 hands, but this time he hesitated and looked weaker, if not weak. Very thin read on him, but got a sense that now was the time, and that a push from me on 90% of the flops would work (any Ace, King or 8, flush or straight possibility, and so on...

   HAND 2:

   In early position, I limp for 100 with , the Button and SB call, BB checks. Flop is and is checked around. Turn is , SB, BB and I check, but Button raises to 500. SB & BB fold, I call. River is a third diamond, I bet 1,000, button calls, shows a set of sixes and loses to my flush.
   >>> Let's break it down. Pre-flop limp, checked around post flop is not surprising early in the tournament. The flop was rather dry and unlikely to have helped anyone. The turn is a 6 of diamond, pairing the board AND giving me a decent diamond flush-draw. The combination is not condusive to a bet with my hand, but the button's bet of 500 (over bet?) really looks like (at least represents) she might have hit a set of sixes. That's important, because at a first glance, I do not have pot odds to call (500 to a 800 pot, with odds at best at 1 to 5) but I have implied odds: if I hit a diamond, I know the Button will call any (reasonable) bet I'll make. That's what happened: got my flush, bet it (looks like a still), the Button has a set with an Ace kicker, my runner-runner flush looked like a far-stretched story, and she calls.

   HAND 3:

   I limp from the cut-off an un-opened pot for 100 with a suited . SB calls and BB checks. Flop come , with 2 clubs: I have a flush draw. SB bets 200, BB raises to 500, I fold my hand.
   >>> Let's break it down. Pre-flop, all I had was position, J8 even suited is pretty bad, so a limp is a more conventional venue than a raise. When SB bets on the A-K-rag flop, one can assume he's got something: maybe a pair, maybe a draw. If BB would have folded, I would have floated the SB bet, again not so much because of my own flush draw (200 more to a 500 pot is not +EV) but on the ground of having position and the opportunity to punish any weakness in later streets. When BB raises to 500, now my options change drastically: if I call and somehow SB let's us see a Turn card, I must improve right then (one chance in 5, my odds are bad) before another round of betting. But what's worse, is that SB could well reopen the action by 3-betting on my call and then god knows what BB would do, but in any case my call money is lost. The action was too hot, and I felt I had to go away.

   HAND 4:

   With an above average stack, blinds at 100-200 and 25 antes, in early position, I raise to 600 with . All folded to the blinds: SB, short-stack, calls; BB calls too. Flop comes with 2 hearts. SB and BB check, I c-bet 1,200, SB check-raises me to 4,000 (she's all-in), BB fold, I call the 2,800. Missed the turn but hit a heart on the river to make my flush and bust SB.
   >>> Let's break it down. Pre-flop, I raise to keep the pressure on the short stacks who were playing cautious, warry to bust before another shorter stack. SB call leads me to believe she had a decent hand (small- or mid-pair, weak Ace) but not a monster, while BB felt probably priced-in. Post flop, checked to me I c-bet like I would do 90% of the time, not because I have a flush draw, despite the bad feeling that the Ace might have hit someone. But to know if the Ace hit anyone, I have to bet, and represent I have an Ace. I got my answer: when SB check-raises me all-in I know I am behind, but there are two factors here: it now only costs me 2,800 extra chips to win a total pot of 11,600, a 24% pot-odd, while my odds to hit a heart on the turn OR the river are around 40%. The call is obvious. Note that if she had shoved on the flop, SB would have given me only 34% pot odds, borderline +EV... I would have considered folding, though calling in the end, as I could afford a call even with worse odds given my dominant stack at the time, and the high value of busting a dangerous competitor in the league.

   Cheers!
   Fred

   Posted by Frederic at 2012-04-05 01:41:43

   View all posts

Comments on “Playing a 4-flush post-flop”