On my big blind (first round, 25/50), a total of 5 people limp. I have and finally decide to simply check my options and see what the flop brings. It comes with and I bet 250 after the SB checks. I get 2 callers. Turn is and I bet 600. First guy calls, second shoves all-in for over 3,000 (has us both covered). I stared at him for a while, and his seemed overly confident. I give him credit and fold, as does the other guy. He shows for a straight, saying "I did not want you to draw a flush on me"... Down to 2,100 chips.

A few minutes later, second round (50/100), on my small blind. UTG limps, but the gal on the hijack position raises to 600. It is folded to me and I look at . There was only one limper, for once, and she raises to 600? She has shown she had some skills, I take that as a protection bet, probably on a small to medium pair. With 2,100 left, I shove confidently. UTG raises all in (has a bit more than me) and the gal calls. UTG has while the gal raised and calls all-in with . Flop is uneventful but the turn is the that sends me to the rail. Back to work!

Setup: $40 buy-in, 95 entrants, top-10 paid

Why, oh why...
After an uneventful round 1, blinds are 50/100 and I find in middle position. I raise to 400 and surprisingly got the cut-off, the button and the small blind to call! Flop came , small blind goes all-in (pot size, a bit over 1,000) and I go all out. Button calls: both have an ace, SB pairs his kicker on the turn and survives. Wasted good hand.

Well, oh well...
Round 3, blinds 100/200 with a stack of 2,300 on the button. Two middle position guys limp, I watched the two guys in the blinds (they always peek at their cards right away) and they seemed ready to fold. I look at my hand: ; look at the limpers: 2,500 and 2,100 including their bet; smell weakness and shove my 2,300 all-in, counting on some good fold equity based on my stack size and tight image so far, and my hand isn't bad either if it comes to that. Blinds fold but both limpers call: and . My odds at that point are 39%, 43% for the queen kicker, 18% for 9 kicker. Flop comes and my odds improve to 72%, 20% for the queen kicker, 8% for the 9. Turn is and I am over 85% favorite, the two guys are down to a two-outter. River is and I am gone.

Next time!

Went last Friday to Deuces Wild, for the $115 buy-in High Rollers tourney. Small turn-out with about 35 players total, almost all of whom were the regulars. Means pretty intense poker. Just before we consolidate to 2 tables, I lost a pot that brought me down to 9,800 chips. With the blinds at 300/600 my M is around 10, time to make things happen.

Final hand:
On the BB (seat 9), a very short stack who doubled up earlier, but seems to be waiting for Aces to shove.
UTG (seat 1) is a very active and capable guy, with a stack around 30,000, who raises to 2,000. Before betting, he looked past the dealer at the BB and his stack. My read: despite the early position demonstration of strenght, his bigger bet than usual shows he was not looking for action but was ready to eventually call the BB's all-in (average plus, Ax or Kx, low or middle-pair, mid/high suited connectors.)
UTG+5 (seat 5 just on my right) is a young, relatively tight player. He calls the 2,000. He did not raise, nor call quickly. My read again is that he does not have a premium hand, and might call in position against the loose seat 1. He's got about 13,000 chips.
I am UTG+6 (seat 6) and look at pocket tens. Despite the action, I decide to shove (a 7,800 raise): I am in late position (hijack) , and neither the button, nor the blinds seem to show any particular interest in the hand. I expect the BB to fold (too much action.) Seat one, the original raiser will be in a tight spot: he got called, and then raised. I expect him to fold 95% of the time. The guy on my right had me covered, but not by much. I also expect him to fold, at least 50% of the time. As I was not putting him on an over pair (JJs to AAs, he would have raised) if he calls, I expect and I believe he would expect too, a coin flip...

It is all folded to the original raiser, who gives me a dark look, but folds without more theatrics. The guy on my right struggles for over a minute (an eternity in a small casino like DW.) He seemed about to give up, but changed his mind last minute I don't know why (shame, tired, fed up to be bullied around at the previous table?) He pushed his chips and showed AQ unsuited. My tens held tight the flop, then the turn, but the river is a deadly Queen, and I am out!

Faced with the same situation, I would shove again... Thoughts?

Concepts: strategy, hand reading

Context: $40 buy-in daily tournament at Thunder Valley is now live, and typically gets 60 to 90 players. Starting stack is 3,000 with blinds 25/50 doubling up every 20 minutes. Yesterday, I made the money and the final table, but barely and painfully: nursed a short stack all the time, and survived through ugly shoves. Yet, rich of the money I got back, I decided to make a exception to my personal once-a-week rule and returned today.

I came at the table with a strategy: open up my game a little, take more chances and try to build a stack up early. Mid-round #2 (50/100) I have already collected a couple of small pots with unexceptional hands I would probably not have played usually, and am up but just a bit to 3,100. The villain under the gun looks at his cards and I see him get all stiff. His hands shaking, he min-raises to 200 and looks at the ceilling. My read is that he's got aces. It's folded to me, on the button, I look at the blinds who don't seem too interested, and ready to fold. My hand is and I decide to call with those connectors.

Flop is the villain bets 300 so I flat-call with middle pair to see what the turn will bring. Bingo: . Villain checks, nervous like hell. I believe he'll check raise: I have 2,600 chips left, and decide that 700 should open the way getting us both all in. Sure enough, he raises to 1,500, I re-raise all-in and he insta-call, and slams his aces on the tables. His face when he saw my two-pair hand: priceless, but I must dodge quite a few of his outs (I am in fact about 3 to 1 to win.) River is a killer: and his two pairs beat mine. I am out.

On second thoughts, I believe I made several mistakes. For one, if he had Kings or Queens instead of Aces, his reaction could have been similar - though I think the open bet would have been bigger - so betting all on my read he had Aces was risky. Also, on the turn, I could have waited before going all-in: just call the 1,500 and if a king, deuce, ace or ten hits, I can fold and survive with my remaining chips, otherwise , I know he'll never fold his aces and he'll call my 1,000 final bet.

What would you have done?

Well, I'm really back, it seems. I mean, my luck is back.

Saturday, I played online only once, a $6.00 +$0.50 Knockout tourney, 90 players. I finished 6th, earning $27 plus $4 for busting 4 people. First online win in a long, long time. Got a couple of lucky coin-flips, but would call my final hand a bit unlucky: third in chip stack, I re-raise all-in with a 3-BB raise by a short stack, early position guy. The BB has me outchipped and calls, the early raiser goes into the tank, and finally goes all-in too (pot committed anyway.) BB shows and the short stack . Flop comes so my hopes went way high for a microsecond, to crash right away when I see the set of nines. Turn and River did me no good - nor to the short-stack guy - and I busted in 6th position.

Sunday, I made it to Thunder Valley: the 3pm $30+$3 shoot-out tournament, 45 players. OK, I made it also into the money, and again, we unanymously and immediately agreed to chop ($225 apiece.) What I wanted to share was more along the lines well developped by Dan Harrington: how the structure and the payout must shape your strategy.

We started with 5 tables of nine. My goal was to be one of the top-2, as then you move to the final table with the 2 top players of all the other tables, and start FRESH (full 3,000 stack, new reset blinds.) First, I waited for something to play with, but got the driest set of hands in a long time. Tried a couple of middle suited connectors that missed pityfully, and after 4 orbits of that, blinds went up again and I was down to around 2,000. When I saw in late position I decided to shove, but the young lady on the BB (who doubled up on the very first hand on a questionable play but very lucky flop) called and showed . Flop came so I made bottom pair but she paired her ace. I said "I can still hit a King or a Three" and she responded "Goodbye!" Nice. The turn came blank with but got my lucky river with a beautiful . I doubled up - and survived - and crippled a bit the young brat, whom I busted - with some pleasure I might add - a few hands later. Finally, I avoided the big stacks, attacked the short stacks, increased my lead and busted the last guy in 3rd position.

On the final table, I smelled very weak players. I recognized a bunch of regulars, whom talked right away of chopping, whatever. So my strategy became to not get involved - unless a big hand comes. Well, I slowly went down to about 1,200 chips as 3 people got busted (always the same story: they got involved in hands that turned bad, either lost or folded to strong pressure, lost chips, and forced all-in with a miserable stack and increasing blinds, semi-ok hands, and lost.) I am BB, blinds at 400 already, and the guy on my left is down to 800, and he pushes all-in. The guy on the button says "Sorry, but I really have to call" (not very cool, by the way, to speak like that with other players still in the hand, but that was a common theme at that table: I wished we had a dealer to shut those guys up.) My hand is average at best ( and I fold without second thoughts. The busted the all-in (what did I say about shoving late in the game with small pairs?!) and I was ultra-short stack but 6th! As those guys came back saying "let's chop" I did not oppose it, you can guess!

Nice weekend!
Fred

Friday 10/16 7pm High-Rollers tourney at Deuces Wild: $110+5 buy-in, 11,000 chips, 37 players >> Chop 5-way ($680 prize)

I'm back! Those past few weeks have not been very active poker-wise (family & visitors, wife's surgery...) and any post would have been about bad beats (the excuse often for bad play...) So it's good news to return to the game with some success.

First, I'd like to explain why a chop - again, some would say who would read this blog... Chopping came in the discussion as we formed the final table with 10 players. But there was such a mismatch of huge and tiny stacks, that few even responded. When bubble-boy was gone, and then 6th place finish took his money ($115) the proposal came back. It was almost 11:30pm, over 5 hours of play after a long day at work (for most of us at least.) But any of us was a legitimate candidate for first place as the drunk and the very old were already busted. So what made the difference was the blinds (just about to go up to 4,000 and 8,000 I believe) and the respective stacks: I had exactly 70,000, 67,000 on my left, then a bit over 100,000 for the chip leader, and around 80,000 for the last two guys, in fact the exact average stack. We all held the "top stack" at one point of time, and with the upcoming blinds, we had M's hovering around 6, meaning it was going to be a crab shoot. With almost $700 apiece, we made about the prize for 2nd, better than 5th, 4th or 3rd. Deal.

Second, I'd like to share my thoughts about how I play very small pairs (deuces up to four's.) Early in the game, with big stacks (or small blinds,) I might limp in, see a cheap flop: I make trips, I stay in, otherwise I go away - well at least 80% of the time, and if I don't smell weakness. Late in the game, things change and I play them exactly like very weak aces: fold most of the time, stay in if low risk only but won't lead. Let me share two hands I played Friday. With on the button I see the average stack UTG guy raise, the short-stack UTG+2 barely re-raise going all-in. I show my trips to the guy on my right and fold too. He called me over-tight, that he'd go all-in with that, and so on. Cards proved him right: UTG had while UTG+2 had , none improved up to the river, my pair would have played. I'm still confident that the fold was the right action. Even knowing what they had (which was not much,) I was not ahead:

Player	Statistic	Result
	%Win	29.78%
	%Tie	0.35%
	Odds	2.34 to 1
	%Win	34.50%
	%Tie	0.35%
	Odds	1.89 to 1
	%Win	35.37%
	%Tie	0.35%
	Odds	1.82 to 1

A bit later, down to two tables, Nader was UTG+2 and raised my 1,000 big-blind all-in to around 8,000. I had about 13,000 left with and decided to call as I knew Nader could shove on a range down to average hand. He showed and I secretly rated his move as overly audacious. Flop came and he kept smiling nervously, uneventful turn , but then river makes two over-pairs on the board, my ace plays and he's busted, he's pissed off and throw me a "Nice call!" that I felt was not entirely sincere. Any thoughts?

Wednesday 9/16 7pm tourney at Deuces Wild: $30/$30+5 buy-in, 3,000 chips plus one re-buy plus some bonus chips, 12 players >> busted in 8th position ($0 prize)

Bad karma: early in the game with about 4,000 chips, I am on the button, 25/50 blinds. 2 limpers, early and middle position, and I have and the button: I call; SB calls, BB checks. Family pot (250 chips.) Flop: rainbow. Checked up to middle position guy who bets 200: he might be on air only, playing position, or even better have something like a pair or two! In any case, I raise to 600. It's folded to the original raiser who calls. I'm relatively satisfied: could he have trips? The turn is another . The guy checks. That 5 stinks. That could improve many hands I was putting him on. I should check and pray, but I would not know where I was standing, so I put a medium bet of 700 pretending the 5 might have helped me. He raises to 1,500. It could be genuine: he's got a A5 or even K5 and tries to suck me in, but I know the guy and he's got game, he could well do the check-raise trick to get me out of the hand. I settle for a call. Turn is a blank, the buy bets 1,000 which is practically all we've each got left. He means business and looks very calm: I give him credit for a good hand and fold. He shows K5 for a full-house! I'm back to the grind.

Bad fold? in late position with about 1,500 chips, blinds 50/100. I am not desperate yet (close to, but...) so I must be selective and my brings back bad memories... but after 3 limpers, there is too much money in the pot and I decide to limp; so do the SB and BB. With 600 chips in the pot, the flop is , I have top pair. The 3rd guy bets 400, next fold, but the guy on my right calls too. Now, that's not good: one of them is more than likely to have a K in his hands, and most probably with a better kicker than mine. I fold, and so do the SB and BB. Turn is a !!! First guy bets, second calls. River is a Q!!! I would have had a full boat! First guy bets, and the second guy calls: first shows , the second ! I would have split the pot, but what were the odds?!

Bad run: blinds just increase to 300/600, I have 5,200 chips (thanks to the re-buy at the break) or M=6. In late position, SB and BB have average stacks, I shove for the first time all-in with . It's folded to me and I steal the blinds. I now have 6,100 chips. Next hand, kind of middle position, it's folded to me and I have . I shove all-in again, hoping for a call. The SB says "I can't fold that hand... I call" and shows pocket ! Flop is ; turn is a that seals my destiny; river, I'm not sure as I was already shaking some hands and leaving. I believe I was doomed to die anyway: even if I do not shove, bet and then call his probable raise, the flop with a jack gives me top pair top kicker and I would have shoved then... Oh well!